Trends - emailed to subscribers 26th July, 2002

Keeping an eye on US markets has become necessary these days; US movement will affect our market.

(An aside note, on a daily basis, if you watch closely enough, you will find the Aust market (often) moves first, as on a time basis we are in front of the US, the trend however rests with the far larger US obviously.)

As you can see with markets, bear markets have a unique tendency to catch everyone by surprise; you don't know you are in one till you are in one. Quite often too, I have found that if the market ever gives you time to panic, then the down move is generally all over. There are however a few things to watch for, to help us know the trend;

- on the large scale, always know roughly where you are in the property cycle. I have almost completed what I want to get to you about this, so that is on its way shortly

- always know roughly where you are in the decade cycle as well. That is reasonably obvious at the moment, somewhere between 6 and 8 o'clock. That tells us there are downside risks for all markets. That tells you to continue to be aware for trades in stocks on the short side, in particular any stocks making new all time lows, since at this time, markets will already be way off previous boom time tops.

- Watch major Indices for key breaks. I have made a few notations on the attached S&P chart to show you what I mean. I have made some notes on the Dow chart also. STUDY THIS. It is the very best of Gann to give you a clear short term indication of what direction the market, in this case the Dow, will take in the coming week. Study it in relation to the Degree dates for 2002 that were emailed to you earlier in the year. The dates given to you are the KEY dates that the Dow, and most other markets will change trend on. Especially relevant in a clear trend up or down. This one is in hindsight, to show you how to learn it, at least how I understand a bit of it; next we will have a go at forecasting it.


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