The market does move in set time frames, which can at times be forecast.
The top has come in, now for the low ??
The next time frame of significance after May 18 to 27, comes up for
between July 26 and August 6th.
Watch also 18th May, and 19th June to see how the market is on these
days, to help tell us if end July is shaping up as a low or high. At
this stage i am thinking end July for a high - if it is, and we are back
up at the tops again around 3500 on the spi, and the market fails to
continue thru this price, this is a triple top, the retracement from
which could be quite pronounced. i think however we will break to new
highs. See what happens at the time. But we trade the actuality of
course, not the forecast.
The business cycles knowledge indicates to me we have at least a couple
of years of growth ahead of us into the 18 year property cycle peak
around 2008 or so, which is why i think the market will eventually move
to convincing new highs.
The world in general looking more and more Orwellian to me.
You might remember George Orwell's 1984. The Ministry of Truth,
concerning itself with the distribution of news, the Ministry of Peace,
with war, and the Ministry of Love, which maintaining law and order.
And the doublethink phraseology, war is peace, freedom is slavery,
ignorance is strength. With very little ceremony, emperor Putin is put
back into the Kremlin promising:
- to develop a pluralistic political system (Putins party United Russia
(now there is a doublethink) organizes constantly behind the scenes a
constitutional majority in the Parliament),
- to restructure and trim the govt, and eradicate corruption (but offers
no change in policy)
- that Russia's success cannot depend on one single party (television
remains state controlled, and his party has a stranglehold on govt use
of information resources)
The world of 1984 was maintained thru perpetual warfare, giving great
excuse for the proles to be kept in perpetual fear of the enemy. The
war economy made necessary many sacrifices, but kept the balance,
maintained stability, provided jobs etc etc
One-fifth of current US growth is war related, now spending $500 billion
per year on armaments
Call me cynical but the military brass at the top, not to mention the
pollies in power, have a huge incentive to string this out, why on earth
would they want the capture of public enemy number one, obl. But note,
as per in history, the borrowing to pay for the binge will have to be
paid at some point, and will accentuate the downturn when bank lending
goes into reverse. Go back and re read the 18 year chapters from the
cycles course, if you are unsure how this will pan out. Our indicators
will pick the time to be ready.
Warmed the heart to see Rummy modestly repentant.
(you may have to submit an email address to log in to see this one, but
there is no charge)
cellblock 1A at Abu Graib, now there is a room 101, straight out of the
ministry of Love (those rats gave me nightmares for years)
The President says he had been kept in the dark about the pictures (if
the IHT of May 8 is to be believed in their reporting) but it is well
known that often it is he, the President, that makes the final decision
where an 'enemy combatant' is held, and the interrogation used to
(mind you, if you are going to set your mind on a course of jihad, then
you have to expect your futures lows will be pretty low - and deservedly
so, no sympathy from me on that score, your future comes out of your past)
The men at the top make it their business to know what is going on
surely ? But the scary thing is, if Rummy really did not know what is
going on... who then is in control, or is it out of control ?
As to the Proles, well we all know where they are - you only have to
travel greyhound anywhere in the US to meet these warriors.
And as for Orwell's telescreen, any govt has easy access to any of our
email and phone conversations. Big brother is watching us. Orwell's
character Winston came out of room 101 to love big brother in the end.
Bush states publicly Iraq will be free, Iraq will be independent. The
largest embassy in the world is under construction in Baghdad - no
guesses as to all the listening devices this will contain, still 130,000
troops there, and 14 military bases.
The biggest obstacle to handover of power in Iraq July 1st is the US gun
lobby's insistence of the inclusion in the Iraqi constitution of an
Iraqi's right to bear arms. More gun sales... War is Peace
And from this ministry of Love in nth Korea;
A train blast in Nth Korea kills hundreds and the govt comes out with
unending gratitude for the sacrifices made by the ordinary plain
villagers, who above all else, went back into the flames to rescue their
pictures and drawings of beloved Dear Leader from destruction, grabbing
these items even before their own children. (Yeah right....)
No wonder Gann spoke of human folly in groups, and repeat behaviour, and
it being unlikely to change.
Better stick to the cycles research next email I think, it's too
depressing. Orwell wrote a great book though.
Click here to see the file...