Update - Thu, 30 Sep 2004

First thing:
reported several weeks ago from the ABS:

"Credit continues to expand at a brisk pace, growing 1 per cent in June to be up 15.5 per cent in the year."

Markets know it; no downturn is possible when this is going on. The real estate cycle really is linked to credit creation and land price. And credit is expanding presently. When credit expands, land price goes up. Same in the US:

Take the time to read the following



(sites may ask you to register - it's free, and I always plug in a hotmail email address so my real one is not compromised or passed on to junk-emailers, these 2 articles are worth it)

Now plug "Florida land boom" into the google search engine, and tell me history is not repeating. Same is happening in Europe. Mini land booms wherever Ryanair is choosing to place its next airport to land at - ten quid fares out of London and you know the rest of the story. Plenty of juice left in the up-move yet though.

then you may care to review the following Fortune magazine 1973 article (reprint) at


(the last two paragraphs most important)

To stocks
If you have been buying breaks of clear accumulation, you should have been doing okay - you certainly should not be making losses, and would have only to worry about where to sell. Been plenty of good breaks; emi, iri, iba, cey, ebr, snn,

But it takes discretion and patience, and you can't get them all. So just keep watching the new highs list. note though, it is better for the high across clearly defined past tops, preferable double or triple tops

Of course there will some that don't continue, or move back, like bsa. Take the stop, preserve your capital and move on.

Interesting to see at least someone is thinking investment and terror

I did note, just out of interest:
30 years ago and prior, Vietnam
60 years ago, 1944, world war
90 years ago, 1914, June 28, Serbian terrorists assassinated the Austrian Archduke, Austria declared war on Serbia 30 days later and the world was at war. The US entered the first world war in 1917, so 2007 is 90 years later. though 120, 180 years prior indicate nothing it seems In the same way, the Guardian weekly's headline on Iraq for sept 24, "chaos after one of the most murderous weeks since Saddam's fall" 360 + 180 from the start of the war

If you received the latest update from lambertgann this week, about gann forecasting war, you can see that all he was doing was counting degrees, once he had a start date.

though we are fighting the wrong war it seems to me

Seen recently in Canberra, told to me by a friend;
A public servant, on his way home from work in Canberra traffic came to a dead halt and thought to himself, "This is unusual."
He noticed a police officer walking between the lines of stopped cars, so he rolled down his window and asked, "Officer, what's the hold-up?" The officer replied, "The Prime Minister is so depressed, he has stopped his motorcade and is threatening to douse himself with petrol and set himself on fire. He says no one believes his stories about why we went to war in Iraq, the connection between Saddam and al-Qaeda, that his tax cuts will help anyone except his wealthy friends, or that there really were a few children thrown overboard. So we're taking up a collection for him."

The public servant asks, "How much have you got so far?" The officer replies, "About 200 litres, but a lot of people are still siphoning."

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