I hope I can write clearly what I want to say here; let me know if not.
We had another US government warning day before yesterday -July 11th -
of imminent obl linked attacks, from cells the government says are
operative within the US. This followed on from the day before's web site
internet warning from allegedly one of obl's senior lieutenants. Now
that is timing; 300 degrees from Sept 11.
Important to note however, the obl inspired statement prior to that came
out on June 24 I believe, again from an obl lieutenant. More on this
later, but this one did not fit obl's timing of the 11th and 26/27th of
Once again, the US govt. warning comes right in the midst of when the
President and Vice President are under intense pressure from corporate
responsibility issues. (The previous US govt. warning came when both
were under attack about how much they knew of intelligence warnings
prior to the Sept 11, did it not ?) Anybody noticed a pattern here, or
am I just being overly cynical. It's becoming a handy excuse for Mr
President now n'est-ce pas? And straight after the warning given,
another republican jumps up, as will be echoed and called for no doubt
elsewhere from some US partners, just how bad the Iraqi dictator is
(which is no doubt a reasonable statement) and that the US ought to
invade immediately. Ahh the timing.
More to the point however, note the extreme volatility of US markets
July 11, which is no coincidence, and something you will see
continually, but only on related dates, now you are more aware of Gann.
(I noted also the Dow was 200 points down at midday, when the market
turned. Gann states in his commodity book somewhere I recall that the
times of the day are also important for turns, midday being the most
important, or more correctly actually, the sun half way between sunrise
and sunset, believe it or not. Something I also hope to investigate
But back to the market, and timing, some comments follow;
(- a few comments on an ASL chart, point and figure.)
- refer to the QBE chart. You can see where a short sell was taken. On
18th June QBE makes an announcement that the recent drop in its share
price is not warranted, and that the company will meet or better its
earnings forecast for the year; up goes the price. 3 things I want to
say about that.
1. The announcement purporting to be bullish, was in a downtrend. The
day's top ends up being a lower top in the direction of the trend. I
received a call from the broker at this point- happens only rarely - at
the most serene time of 6am for me here, who relates to me the
announcement, and I promptly panic out of my position, without first
looking at my charts, which I now never to do. (I do sleep with the
charts off these days.) The last time that happened, I swore to myself
that I would immediately do the opposite of what the broker was
suggesting, and when I hung up I knew immediately I should have shorted
more - ah our psychology!
2. Here is a reason why shorting the market can be a little difficult;
companies do all they can to support their share price (and also of
course to improve it as you have seen via the accounting frauds now
coming to light - all done to boost earnings and hence share prices, not
to mention the CEO options packages.) We have the added problem in
Australia of so many Australian mums and dads continually looking for
cheap bargains, and buying stocks going lower, hence you may have
noticed the trend on some stocks downwards can be a bit more erratic.
3. And here is the link to obl; things are not always what they seem.
The announcement is released with the object of achieving a result. This
will not be in line with the result you want or that is in your best
interests. Ultimately the market players will make their collective
judgement of the QBE announcement, which the chart will reveal; so trade
the chart, not what the announcement says. And so it is with recent obl
announcements, which are purporting to say that they have re grouped,
that obl is alive and well. Can you see why I think this could be false.
Like the QBE announcement, they are having to defend something, that if
the trend was up, they would not have to do. I hope that makes sense to
you. (The timing of these announcements are also important, that if one
could study well enough would reveal a lot more about future events, as
you see in some charts.) When things are going well, you don't have to
come out with statements to say so; the obvious chart trend tells the
story for you. But when your statements take on the defensive tone,
there is an attachment there to something, that is being hidden.
If obl's group was really operative, they would have struck again
heavily by now, and if they were really as undamaged as their releases
say they are, they would not need to put out their releases. I could be
Anyway, that's what I try to remember about announcements, and relate it
to what I see in the charts. I learnt this clearly with the Gann study
work done by a fellow subscriber and trading of the US stock Priceline
some years back, which some of you would have seen discussed in class.
Perhaps a final thing I could point out, remember also that governments
do everything possible to support asset values, especially land price.
Politicians become only too aware that disquiet in markets can very
quickly turn to disquiet in voter patterns. Note however that there is
never the same disquiet when markets reach insane values to the high
side, which is actually far more dangerous. (Allows presidents to get
away with things that would never be tolerated in a bear market !)
There are some really odd things coming to light now about 9/11 that I
am linking from lots of different sources; for example; remember the
golfer Payne Stewart's plane that drifted aimlessly in the US skies on
autopilot after the plane apparently lost pressurization or something
like that and all on board suffocated or passed out, remember too that
the US scrambled fighter jets to the side of this stricken plane, which
I seem to remember was within 90 seconds of the plane not responding to
air traffic control instructions. Yet on Sept 11 as I recall, no
fighter jets could be found to do the same, yet they had much longer
than 90 seconds to scramble.
QBE - PDF
ASL - PDF