Time tops and bottoms - emailed to subscribers - August 7th 2002

Check out the turn in the US; good date if ever there was one, August 6. (Hiroshima day) You should learn from this. What is happening is that on our key monthly dates, they are the times most likely when our collective consciousness will make decisions en mass.

We have a higher low in place in the US now, (follow this at barchart. com, click on industrials) both lows are on our key dates we watch for, dates you can calculate in advance (nice isn't it - still think markets and life in general is random ??) so this forecasts a reasonable six or seven week rally at least. Of course this may not eventuate, it's what stop losses are for, but I feel that I would have to consider giving up my Gann studies if we did not get some sort of US rally at this point, after the higher low in place today. That means news must come out over the next few weeks that is interpreted by the players as positive for the market. (eg a rate cut, or talk of one) Anyway, I have no more shorts left, and have had a close look at what I think might be good gainers in the next few weeks, ie the stronger stocks. (see below)

These are my thoughts at least; but trade the stock trend, not my thoughts. Time lows like that on the Dow 24/7 and 6/8 rarely break immediately. Nevertheless, Mr market will do all it can to try to trick those playing. But reading bottoms and tops based on those time dates emailed to you is one of only very few ways I know of, that can help us overcome the tricks of Mr market; the others ways being time cycles and gann angles, more of which I will email about later. One would forecast the next important turn for the US at a mid point retracement.

Right now, I thought I would take the time to rewrite a little about one method of finding stocks; here is what I do at least. I try at least monthly to flick thru the stex charts; stex on auto, 3 second delay, looking for stocks doing the following;

-Approaching new highs, e.g. GAP last week (buy the break)

-Approaching new lows, e.g. ALL, at present, SEV last week (short sell the break)

-A pattern of accumulation at low prices (buy the break of accumulation, usually effective longer term trades, were plenty on the longer term portfolio) e.g. HCN at present could be accumulating - note you do not need to guess, nor try to appear smart here, wait for the break into new highs, if there is one

-already in a good trend, e.g. DTL, GUD (buy the new high, or buy a midpoint retracement once confirmed, e.g. ASL) -going sideways in accumulation or distribution phase, (e.g. SEV last week, SBC at present)

I note the codes, then create a watch list of each for later viewing. This is my watch list for the month. I will also keep a daily eye on the AFR rolling year records as this list helps me gather trending stocks. I discard immediately those in the AFR list too thin or not traded every day, and there are plenty like this.

I would also note the best trending sectors of the market. It's the same process, over and over each month, bit like going to work really, 'cept I'm my own boss. (The market is my boss really though, since it opens at ten whether I am there or not).

The only battle remaining is then with my emotions, with which I have a VERY hard time; see amp for my latest battle, short sold at 1399 26/7, bought back on the 30th, exiting on an emotional error. Looks woeful doesn't it, even worse in hindsight. I accept this as the price I pay for my independence. You have to be philosophical about it; I traded a bottom to a top with pin point precision, just the wrong way that's all. And I am still learning to kick the habit of kicking the cat so to speak, then missing the next trade. This will always be my issue to deal with I think, anger at myself when I do something really dumb. Those who can laugh at themselves in such a situation have a great skill I feel. We all have different attachments we have acquired over lifetimes.

Once I have viewed all my lists, I try to narrow down the lists if I have to, then see if any dates stick out on chosen stocks, look at repeat prices, assess mid points etc, all that which I email you about. I find that doing the maths like this helps reduce errors, as it is always very easy to buy on impulse.

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