The repeats - emailed to subscribers - Wed, 26 Apr 2006

Just how good was that W.D. fella eh...

aet, news out today, where the stock tops out at 104.5 . On the monthly, take the high in Feb 02 at 1.87, the low in May 05 at 21, I make the mid point 1.04 . How often do we see news released to push the stock into the mid point. Sell, hold, buy more ??? Buy the rumour sell the fact so to speak, as a trader I sell the good news. Just one of those tough trading decisions one has to make, because over time I think the stock will head higher after the retracement that it must (most likely) make now. So we watch and wait.

high land prices are hurting

So the peak body recommends lower property taxes. I hope i have taught you to see through this. First, it is very much a part of the cycle, and indicative of moving into the final part of this 18 year thing. Second, if property taxes are lowered, make sure you realize that it would send land prices UP, not down. If you don't understand that, you need to go over those class notes again. Things need to happen now in my view that send land prices higher, in all past cycles, the biggest land gains came at the end of each cycle, which just sent the herd into panic buying mode for fear of missing out, then of course we have the conditions for a crash afterwards. Everything I see indicates we are on course for this to happen; the ignorance of our economists and institutions is staggering me. Don't get caught in the same ignorance, nor with the herd.

The problem of buyers being priced out of the housing market is HIGH land price, nothing else. But of course, those already in the market, well they just want to see prices go even higher naturally. Such articles as you are seeing now is repeating the cycle - it has all been said before. Observe this unemotionally and it helps you invest better, which is the purpose of this email.

Rinker profit up 50 percent. Must be building heaps. Go land price. Let's hope we get a buying panic next year, be good for the bears later on.

The Treasurer last week is quoted as saying that in the face of high oil prices putting pressure on inflation, we must have wage restraint. Repeat thinking, I've heard all that before. Note nothing is said about land price restraint... guarantees us another cycle.

Finally, another example - attached - of this 75 day thing, vki, that I drew attention to at the lecture, i.e. count from a major high or low, 30 60 90 etc, but also count out 45 days, then start again another count, 30 60 etc. 75 days so often gives a low. But it is not just the day count that is important - if that 75th day turns up a mid point retrace, or very close to it, you have yourself a short term trade. Both time and price must come together, okay. I accept that in the example given, the stock is thin, this one is just for an example, it happens often in better stocks to trade.

Keep that one under your belt, don't want it into the general public.

Which is why, of course, I ended the ATAA talk last week with something for them to think about, to challenge pre-conceived notions. Do the same of any emotional event, 9/11 for example. Next dates to watch for emotion, 5 years obviously, this September, then Jan 4 2008, being 45 plus 30 from the event. And we saw what 45 months gave us. Can I say 100% something will happen Jan 08, nope, but there is a high probability of some sort of echo. Let's see.

Chart - VKI

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