Just how good was that W.D. fella eh...
aet, news out today, where the stock tops out at 104.5 . On the
monthly, take the high in Feb 02 at 1.87, the low in May 05 at 21, I
make the mid point 1.04 . How often do we see news released to push the
stock into the mid point. Sell, hold, buy more ??? Buy the rumour
sell the fact so to speak, as a trader I sell the good news. Just one
of those tough trading decisions one has to make, because over time I
think the stock will head higher after the retracement that it must
(most likely) make now. So we watch and wait.
high land prices are hurting
So the peak body recommends lower property taxes. I hope i have taught
you to see through this. First, it is very much a part of the cycle,
and indicative of moving into the final part of this 18 year thing.
Second, if property taxes are lowered, make sure you realize that it
would send land prices UP, not down. If you don't understand that, you
need to go over those class notes again. Things need to happen now in
my view that send land prices higher, in all past cycles, the biggest
land gains came at the end of each cycle, which just sent the herd into
panic buying mode for fear of missing out, then of course we have the
conditions for a crash afterwards. Everything I see indicates we are on
course for this to happen; the ignorance of our economists and
institutions is staggering me. Don't get caught in the same ignorance,
nor with the herd.
The problem of buyers being priced out of the housing market is HIGH
land price, nothing else. But of course, those already in the market,
well they just want to see prices go even higher naturally. Such
articles as you are seeing now is repeating the cycle - it has all been
said before. Observe this unemotionally and it helps you invest better,
which is the purpose of this email.
Rinker profit up 50 percent. Must be building heaps. Go land price.
Let's hope we get a buying panic next year, be good for the bears later on.
The Treasurer last week is quoted as saying that in the face of high oil
prices putting pressure on inflation, we must have wage restraint.
Repeat thinking, I've heard all that before. Note nothing is said about
land price restraint... guarantees us another cycle.
Finally, another example - attached - of this 75 day thing, vki, that I
drew attention to at the lecture, i.e. count from a major high or low,
30 60 90 etc, but also count out 45 days, then start again another
count, 30 60 etc. 75 days so often gives a low. But it is not just the
day count that is important - if that 75th day turns up a mid point
retrace, or very close to it, you have yourself a short term trade. Both
time and price must come together, okay. I accept that in the example
given, the stock is thin, this one is just for an example, it happens
often in better stocks to trade.
Keep that one under your belt, don't want it into the general public.
Which is why, of course, I ended the ATAA talk last week with something
for them to think about, to challenge pre-conceived notions. Do the
same of any emotional event, 9/11 for example. Next dates to watch for
emotion, 5 years obviously, this September, then Jan 4 2008, being 45
plus 30 from the event. And we saw what 45 months gave us. Can I say
100% something will happen Jan 08, nope, but there is a high probability
of some sort of echo. Let's see.
Chart - VKI