have a look at the following charts - weekly;
dom dra drd dre emp eqi gbg jbm lhg rbk tkr
all gold stocks, all hitting past highs for the third time over the past
year, which in some cases is lining up with highs of years back. Watch
gold. It is due for a bit of a retracement at present, but should there
be another new high in the gold price, these gold stocks, should they
break present highs, will run. So I will be watching. Pay attention
too, to any shapes such as triangles that may form in the charts.
Advertising stocks seem to be attempting moves off lows, usually a
first sign of recovery out of recession. A real specy to watch, bmc.
I read Friday's AFR with great interest;
front page on HIH, the Financial Sector advisory committee, FSAC, a high
level advisory committee of business leaders with a direct reporting
line to the Treasurer warned the Federal Govt about problems at HIH in
1999. This was about a year before the troubles starting to reach the
papers. FSAC was created in 1998 with the view to preserving "the
integrity, security and fairness" of the financial system following the
Wallis report on the industry. Apparently warnings were given verbally
to treasury officials, and not official FSAC policy.
Note, the chairman of FSAC, is chairman of the ASX, Maurice Newman. I
am not in the slightest suggesting anything untoward here; merely that
you can see how the market would get to know companies in trouble, way
before the public does. Never buy stocks trending lower.
p3, virgin blue is buying 50 planes off boeing. Why ? "the price is
right and the timing is right, there is just no one buying aircraft at
the moment." Smart fella that Branson. Some of you may recall one of
my EIS half yearly reports back in 1999 highlighting the fact that plane
sales were at all time highs that year. Good sign of a top at the time
- plane sales have always in the past peaked with the business cycle, so
too at the bottom, when no buying takes place.
p5 advert for the weekend AFR, "why the man in the middle of the HIH
collapse, Ray Williams, still believes he never did anything wrong" If
you want to know how he can still possibly believe that, read the first
chapter of Dale Carnegie's (badly titled by simply super) book 'How to
win friends and influence people'. Simply the best book there is about
I sincerely doubt the courts will end up prosecuting anyone at HIH.
Anyone heard more about one-tel lately ? Nothing will happen there
either. Never buy stocks trending down. Classic illustration of this
at present is nhl. Just wait for that all important quiet accumulation
to take place - a minimum few months sideways at least. (see twr as one
example for instance of some sort of sideways move one should wait for)
And as ever, a great Pierpont read.
Call me cynical...
Microsoft has just announced it will pay its first ever dividend, 16
cents per share.
The 2nd biggest donor to the Bush party, behind Philip Morris. Bush
elected and the case against the microsoft monopoly is as good as
dropped. Microsoft under siege now from the linux system. More and
more governments around the world are transferring pc operations onto
the linux open source code, rather than be dependent on windows. This
is being fed by persistent rumors that since microsoft will not open its
source code, like linux, it could be hiding something. (There have been
rumors for years that microsoft code has a hidden key that allows
untraceable backdoor entry by US authorities into any computer on-line
using windows- unproven, but I am reminded here of the 16 US bugs found
in that Boeing jet ordered by the Chinese) anyway, governments continue
to swap to linux. Now microsoft has decided to open its code - all but
3% of it, that bit remains 'secret' - unless you are prepared to travel
to the Microsoft hq and sign US govt secrecy laws. Mmmmm....
Bush announces a package last week that tries to revive the markets by
untaxing dividends, microsoft the first tech company to announce its
intention to pay one. Mmmmm...
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