The state of play - Mon, 25 Oct 2004

First up, Oct 13 seemed an unusually heavy day in the market, just by what I watch. One might count fwd 90 days off that and see what happens. Just an intuition. Put it in your diary.

You might have noticed metals markets dived last week on news out of China - that was after hitting 15 year highs (180 months) China is the wild card this cycle it seems.
(from last year)

in light of the following that came my way recently;

This is all very much the cycle repeating. To come to understand this real estate cycle, I have found the material of Ludwig Von Mises and Henry George to be the most useful. A synthesis of these two philosophies does explain the movements. I have already referred you of course to one such outline written by Prof. Fred Foldvary ( This is a terribly important piece of writing - one of the best explanations I have seen. A great kicking off point for further discovery should you have an interest in the nature and cause of things. So I do urge you when you have spare week to visit the web and see a few of the related sites: von mises institute geoist sites

Read anything by the authors as follows:
Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard, Henry George, Fred Harrison Also a must read sometime is Daniel Yergin's 'The Prize" (the bible on oil), since oil is the key political commodity these days. More on oil to come, next email.

and sites like

Once you have been to the above, visit issues 82, 116, 118, 128, 132 and 133. This will help you see why i think the real estate cycle has much further to go. 2008 looking good for a peak actually. Again, more to follow on this next email.

Do however keep in mind, in referring you to such sites, it is not an attempt to convert you to any way of thinking - though you all know of my utter contempt for government and politicians in general anyway. (And libertarians like Rothbard, for whom i have great sympathy, tirelessly advocated minimal government - though he and they missed entirely the point about the rent, but are correct about the role of credit) It is just that should you be interested in understanding the way economics truly works, this is the info that will best help you take advantage of it all. It is about the interplay of interest rates, the creation of credit, and the rent.

Fortunately too, I was lucky enough to have been pointed in the direction of Gann who, incredibly, saw fit to be able to date and time some of these turns. I await with interest to see how it all plays out.

No one in the world has thought to coherently combine all three - this is what my research will do. More to follow

Finally, mia died nicely at the mid point of its extremes - what a nice way to go; balanced !

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