Some observations - emailed to subscribers - Wed, 13 Apr 2005

Goldman Sachs forecasting oil to hit $105 - well they may or may not be right, but those sorts of forecasts always come out at some sort of medium or longer term high, so see what happens for oil over coming months - just an emotional thing, this is not tied into how the chart may look

same with every man and his dog calling a property peak this year - even the World Bank saying it - and when they say something it is almost certain to be wrong. The 1000 economists on that payroll have never been right yet. Me, I'm sticking to the 18 year thing. The most accurate indicator to date has been the tallest building syndrome: they have always opened at or just after the peak in the real estate cycle. Current crop of world's tallest are scheduled for 2009 completion.

Besides, all the oil sheiks and Russian mobsters have to put their easy earned rental wealth somewhere, and it will diversify further into property. This will keep real estate prices humming along allowing the more savvy from the early 1990's buyers to quietly sell down or cash up.

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