Some Notes - emailed to subscribers - Mon, 21 Mar 2005

Here is what Sanford had to say about the market at the end of last month, in their weekly end of week review:


Sydney - Friday - February 25: (RWE) The Australian sharemarket has encountered one of its worst weeks this year as share prices took a serious dive.

Well it was 180 weeks from Sept 11. In fact the whole next 3 to 4 weeks is likely to be volatile. Sept 24 2001 plus 1260 days is March 7th 2005. The spi topped a few years back on this date, so it will be important, but there has not been any sort of price or time overbalance at present, so the trend is still up

Sanford also noted:

There is still a lot of money in taxis, as shown by Cabcharge which produced a pleasant surprise for shareholders in lifting interim divided to 8c compared with 6.5c previously.

It was based on an 11 per cent rise in profit to $13 million.

Investors were confident enough to push the shares to a record $4.70 today, but they slipped back to end 4c weaker at $4.52, but still improved 17c on the week.

Well of course, they have the government granted license in their favour.

Feb saw the CBA post a bonanza profit, then the next day sees APRA warn banks about declining loan standards - Banks make profits by lending, which is credit creation. The higher land price goes, the lower will be the lending standards. Watch the other credit providers, not just the big banks. One will fail at the peak, then it will be down hill for the cycle.

Argentina this week has cleared the way for its entry back into the bond markets by getting creditors to agree to foregoing up to 80% of what they were owed on money borrowed by that country in years past. This will allow Argentina to go back to the banks and request new loans, can you believe it.

Now you're seeing the cycle repeating here; PM Howard has called for increased immigration to solve the skills shortage in the nation. Got nothing to do with skills and work - new workers need a place to live, rent or buy etc. You will see major property interests call for increased immigration more often now. Keeps wages low, land price up.

interest rates up a bit - markets will climb this wall of worry.

State govt looks set to go for wider use of cctv cameras, better planning laws and better venue design to try and clean up the inner city entertainment precints in the *burgeoning pub and club scene*. now there is an indicator in itself - looking very 1980s ish, as the real estate cycle goes into full swing there will be a huge increase in the clubs and pubs, most of whom will go out of business when the real estate cycle turns down repeat history

note the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon
the civil war there lasted 15 years, started 1975; sryian forces have been there since 1976, 29 years
times repeating, see how the emotional pressures repeat on set time frames

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