Some comments - Tue, 14 Jan 2003

I note that every single Aust super fund fund manager produced a negative return in 2002 - the worst returns for near thirty years. Same article goes on to say the super industry is about to embark on a marketing campaign to restore its credibility. Yep

Don't forget to keep an eye out for long term double or triple bottoms (or tops) on some of the bigger stocks. See may. I can refer here to some earlier comments made about this stock - useful to not buy into a down trend, especially if the price is still below the moving average, and don't buy until at least you get a moving average crossover, or price hits and obvious price that gives a double or triple bottom. A simple Gann rule there. Stocks make clear double and triple bottoms often enough to trade sensibly. One caveat tho, faster money is made trading long with the trend, and buying breakouts to the high side.

Monday's AFR headline, 'Unions to target manufacturers in wage push'. This is quite significant. Now don't get me wrong here, unions always seem to be pushing for higher wages (except at recession lows), but such a new push, organised as "Campaign 2003" comes as rents have climbed astronomically in the past two years. Go back and re-read the first property summary I sent a few months ago, and you will see where this fits in. As the rent (land price) gets higher, living costs get squeezed, unions will push to be compensated. You can expect greater union militancy this decade, and into the 18 year property cycle peak.

More importantly, this campaign is targeted at the manufacturing sector. Mainstream economists will not see the meaning of this as described above because they are unable (or unwilling) to see the third factor of production as natural resources, which they consider to be part of capital. It isn't. Around 2005, as manufacturers get squeezed on the rent front yet further, then on the wages front, then finally on the profits front as interest rates rise a little, you can expect less money flow into manufacturing, more into the specualtive rent seeking activities. It is then that property will go right over the top. ( In my view).

Remember to watch for other patterns in the trend - see adx. A flag here, the bottom of the flag often around mid points. Can be quick trades back to the top of the flagpole if you can see the flag early enough at the mid point.


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