Same procedure as last cycle ? - Mon, 28 Jun 2004

same procedure as every cycle

No doubt this guy will blame the devil for the downturn
(you may need to register to view - but its free)

history very much repeating, for all the reasons i outline in classes.

see also the 'house prices start to cool' story at

Markets will continue to climb the wall of worry on this one, a few years to go yet, besides, with the Bank of England predicting house price falls you can be certain it won't happen just yet. The fall happens when it is least expected, when we all feel comfortable. Whilst people are holding back their decisions it means there is still cash on the table for the public, cannot have a peak whilst this is the situation.

Collection of data going well now for past land price induced downturns. Have a look how it happened way back in 1857, first cycle for which there is good data. See attachments, should be read prior to that below.

More to follow at a later date.

Looking back from 2010:
extraordinarily low interest rates fueled yet another bubble in asset prices, this time in real estate (though it was due). Rates were kept artificially low for an extended period by the Fed - though in fairness to his rateness Chairman Greenspan (previously honorarily knighted by the Queen for his services to the maintenance of economic stability) he was probably under enormous pressure from the White house to keep rates at all time lows to ensure economic recovery in time for the incumbent president to get re-elected - plus the enormous issue of government bonds issued in 2003 / 4 under the dictates of wartime finance resulted in an explosive expansion of available bank credit. In 2008 that un-looked for event - the one that shatters public confidence (see below) - lived up to its reputation, undermining the expansion, resulting in banks calling in loans to rebuild their balance sheets in the face of prior lending to those with poorer credit ratings. A credit squeeze, bringing on a short, but very sharp recession

A guess as to the event at the peak that ruins confidence - the collapse of the Saudi Regime that pushes oil prices into the high $50's per barrel. I stress this is a guess, shouldn't do it but I can't resist, as the chart of oil prices shows significant pressure for an event around 2008/9 of some significance to this market.

To matters laughable:
the US Supreme court has backed Defendant Cheney's belief that the govt does not have to reveal the workings of the 2001 energy committee policy task force - the one that only oil companies were invited to, reversing the decision of the federal appeals court. (Cheney v's US District court) Well that's okay, but you'd think Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia might have waited until after the decision, instead of whilst the decision was pending, to take his usual duck hunting vacation with defendant Cheney. (see for more)

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