overbalance is a handy tool for the arsenal. See aed comments.
the market always knows there is news coming, see igr
(and with Gann knowledge, the chart does tell you when to expect it)
now have a look at bta (no image sent)
If you want to know what is going to happen in the world, take a chart,
any chart, and count off the recent major high and/or major low. This
is easier to relate to the real world if you take a stock that is not
influenced by a wide array of events, but is currently affected by major
events happening at present. bta recent high, 10th October just gone,
see what happened at 30 60 and now 90 degrees. This weeks move (now
last week) is in response to the confirmed bird flu cases in Turkey over
the prior weekend most likely. (Biota has a product that may combat
this - may, not proven.) Can you see what this might mean ? Bird flu
events will take place in line with the counts you do on bta. Hard to
believe I know, so the best way for me to prove this to you is to alert
you to it and then we can follow the two events, the chart and the bird
flu, and see what unfolds. This is I believe what Gann discovered, that
forecasting is in fact possible. The future, in fact, is a result of
past events, unfolding in a circle or part thereof, in twelfths mostly.
12 thirties are 360. Hence Gann's ultimate move into astro stuff to try
and explain it. (More on that later this year.)
I think Gann became rather excited by this discovery, and wanted to tell
the whole world. Which of course brought great disappointment probably,
because he would have found that no one is listening, we are too busy
fighting (a toothache is more important than the deaths of twenty
thousand chinese says one old chinese proverb) and in his (Gann's) time
we went on to fight World War II. Nothing has changed, because we are
repeating the behaviour. Afghanistan, Iraq. 60 years later I might
add. So you can be assured the future will repeat, and along the time
lines Gann tried to show us in his books. Have you studied his books ?
avx is showing similar characteristics and dates as bta, so this might
be one to follow as well, tho I know far less about this stock.
Timecounts off past recent tops have a good pedigree:
emi, 45 days
and again, avr
(Each stock has its own numbers, it is just that if the trend is up, and
on the 45th day there is a solid retrace to the mid point, you know what
Or, ech might be a repeat run into that 45th day off the top. I am not
saying this one was necessarily tradable, but if you don't do your
counts, how can you see the time and price set ups. Trade the ones with
the best and clearest trend. So even if you miss the original breakout,
always keep watch for follow up opportunities.
45 days, 45 weeks, 45 months, 45 years
a day (is a month) is a year to the Lord. Now you know what it means.
The good book is telling you to count. It is not telling you, as some
fundamentalists might have you believe, that it is okay to drop bombs on
innocent villagers, or ram planes into buildings. Good men will do good
things, and evil men will do evil things, but it takes religion to get a
good man to do something evil. (Paraphrasing a well known pyhsicist.)
45 months, 9/11 to 7/7/05. Yet another interesting time tidbit on the
Ramsi Yousef, the man convicted of the 1993 WTC bombing, had his trial
in 1996, and was convicted, yes you guessed it, on Sept 11, 1996. This
is of course 60 months prior. Expect far more things of remembrance
this year in Sept than last year. Why is it we will place more
importance on remembrance of 5 years, but not 4 ? Several films in the
pipeline too I hear. 5 year anniversary this year.
What Gann did not study nor see the implications of, is the story of the
rent of natural resources. He thought the economic ups and downs were a
natural part of the world. They are not. No enclosure of the rent, no
booms and busts.
"Of the top oil producing countries in the world, only one is a
democracy with a president who was elected on a platform of using his
nation's oil revenue to benefit the poor. The country is Venezuela,"
said one recent website report. The oil rent is of course taken by just
a very few, very large, multinationals. Which is also why the political
process in just about all nations is now so corrupt.
Therefore, oil will continue to take centre stage over coming years.
Watch particularly Iran. 1979 was the year of its theocratic
revolution. Add 30 years to 2009. Little wonder events are taking the
present course, as emotions will crescendo after or around 2009.
Something else little remembered about Iran, is the events of 1953. It
was in this year that the US (and the UK - with Winston Churchill's
blessing) ousted Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammed
Mossadegh in the US's very first CIA fostered (and paid for) coup.
(Operation Ajax) The US then installed a 'friendly', and so the
eventual 26/27 year dictatorship of Mohammad Reza Shah began. Mossadegh
had made the 'blunder' of nationalizing the British oil company then
operating in Iran under a fantastically lucrative monopoly to produce
and sell oil that just happened to be located under Iranian soil. Most
Iranians were sympathetic to US operations until this time. 60 years
from then takes us to 2013. Plenty of emotional pressure. The current
Iranian President, Mr Ahmedinejad, is I would say simply playing the
same game as Bush did in 2000 and after. Nothing like a bit of regional
uncertainty to bolster one's political standing at home. Hence his
current brinkmanship. Their people of course - in both the US and Iran
- just follow the dogmatic religious pronouncements of their respective
dear leader because the instability makes them too fearful to do
anything else, and allows the rise of security police to enforce the
dogmatic line. And so it goes on to repeat. (It never ceases to amaze
me why the majority of people cannot see through this crap put out by
their leaders. But I digress. Topic for another time.)
So the question is now, how long can Chavez last ?
To other things:
Notice how many builders and residential development companies have been
in the new 52 week highs list this month ? Plenty. The real estate
cycle is alive and well. Markets are always 6 to 12 months ahead of
announcements so you can expect good real estate cycle news this year.
Reliable indicator this one.
For another forecast, see lei. Note how we could have a bit of a set up
here with price and time within the real estate cycle.
Another wild storm in Qld apparently, Jan 7, cyclone, in the north, Jan
9. Count 30 days to feb 6 or so, and we are getting close to that mid
Feb date, see what happens. Perhaps nothing, but a few counts have
lined up presently.