Pattern price and time - emailed to subscribers - Sun, 31 Jul 2005

Plenty plenty triangles to keep us busy mgo, wme, pwk, sea

and of course the lovely jum-bo
(one tries hard not to fall in love with one's stocks, such a lovely shape to my eye... what can a fella do ?)

take a bit of time to visit the magazine here and print off pages 44 and 45, The Master Time Factor
(a magazine you should read from time to time for just such articles)

some comments from me for after you have read the article:
- the writer here could improve his english a bit, to make things slightly clearer in parts i reckon, however, note the ref to 2008. - In my view there is nothing wrong with debt. Gann had it wrong here, as he did not show any understanding of where land value comes from.
Creation of credit, ie debt, is a good things and helps grease the wheels of industry for more productive things that you could never do if you had to build the cash first. Debt used to create income is positive for the economy. The system falls down because we allow credit to be created backed by government granted licenses, the largest of which is land value. Because of this we get a real estate cycle. Such a cycle is not a natural turn of events - it simply makes the natural cyclical flow (determined by the planets) more extreme than it otherwise would be. - solar eclipses for 2001 were June 21 and Dec 14, I make 9/11 half way between

- solar eclipses for 2005 April 8 and October 3, which puts the London bombings half way between, just out of interest. Mid points.

- the author seemed to be indicating the astro stuff called for down months June and July in the US. This is where astro stuff will lead you astray, into the big black hole of oblivion. Trade only with the trend, with the direction of the overbalance, despite whatever other emotions you may be feeling, or what other (mis)leading indicators are telling you.

- note the link between 10 years (120 months) 20 years (240 months and points on the triangle) etc and the planetary cycles. This is where Gann found the reasons why cycles turn as they do - astro stuff. You don't need to know this really, since I ask you to count off highs and lows, 30 60 90 etc, days, months and years. What you were / are doing is astrology - you just didn't know it. A practical example that this works, take JUM. You have seen already how all the highs and lows the past months have been on our degree dates - _dates you could calculate in advance_. (Which we did) A price and time set up is in the offing for the next degree date this week:
repeat run 3.5 added to 5.2 low. That price 8.7 is a sell zone (Stock gave plenty of higher bottoms in which to buy the last month). A high this week on the degree date, sell - it should bring news at which you sell anyway of course. If by chance the date is a low, you then have the chance to lift the stop, and hold for still higher prices, or the repeat run. But having seen this plenty of times before, the 'high' scenario is most likely. Pattern, price, time. Gann knew a thing or two - but you know that already now don't you.

- You don't need years of work to figure a profitable system with Gann, i think we did it in ten weeks on a wednesday for some people, a three day class for others, though you have to practice buying and selling in the market to pick up the skills.

note, lots of stocks lowed May 3rd or that week, expect another change of trend this week - great mid points of the seasonal dates, just like gann shows, and 90 degrees apart.

to other matters
very interesting article in The Economist, July 23rd, about "modelling conflict". Specifically, Iraqbodycount, a group of academics keeping tabs on the Iraq death toll, suggest 25000 civilian deaths so far - an average of 34 a day. An average- they say (obviously), and that some days the count is higher, some days its lower. They are studying the variation around the mean and are finding that the probability of wars having particular numbers of casualities is following a mathematical relationship known as a power law, symptomatic of a complex and highly interactive system. Probabilities, but interesting. For those that followed my emails during the Afgahnistan conflict, you will have seen that the days of highest number of casualties ALWAYS occurred on those gann dates, ie the counts of 30 60 90 etc off the emotional peaks. These dates we worked out in advance.

plenty going on this week, mostly is at market highs and lows. 37 inches - almost 100 centimetres of rain in Mumbai in 24 hours. (Note, they build the flimsy shacks on land no one else has claimed, because all the rest is enclosed - less than 15 families own the most valuable land in that city - which is why people die in slides and cave ins)

the IRA decides to renounce all violence, so it says, after a little more than thirty years doing it. This was 210 days - that's 30 weeks - from that infamous 20 or 30 million bank heisst just prior to xmas was it not. ? Anyway, this is why Gann says to watch for a low, three months plus four months from a major high (which we had Mar 21), since it is 7 months, 30 weeks, forwards. So we watch October with interest, always a reasonable month for lows anyway.

MGO Triangle
WME Triangle

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