Patronage - emailed to subscribers - Thu, 08 Dec 2005

This link makes some interesting reading

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/27/business/yourmoney/27hedge.html?
th=&adxnnl=1&emc=th&adxnnlx=1133587722-rpMeRJnpI4eqsmfSULi9Zw

such things almost always end badly, but for the 18 year thing to peak we have to see the speculation and chasing of the utmost return go right over the top

Reserve Bank has a new vacancy I hear. Always interesting to see a board member test the idea that tax is your number one expense right to the limit. I point out to you again, people in these positions are often there because of their patronage to a political party, not because of their knowledge of the economy. (And it helps too to have a friend on the board to ensure govt policy gets a hearing.) As you can see, this guy spent his time working at ways to avoid tax, not understand what to do to run an economy. It's a farce really, but keep that in mind in the next downturn. Interesting timing as well. Gerard's settlement with the ATO came after the dispute went into its 15th year. Gerard's last flirt with publicity was in 1995 (10 years back) when it emerged he had financed the state liberals illegally. But his company was bailed out by the South Australian Labor party after near bankruptcy in 1990. 180 is always a key time frame.

Groucho Marx had it about right when he observed:
The secret of success is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake those you've got it made

Speaking of dates, an SBS programme about Katrina gave the following storm dates prior to Katrina, also creating massive damage, as follows:
(these were the only dates given for big storm surges on the coast there)

  • hurricane Carla, Sept 11, 1961, 44 year prior (40 years to 9/11 though), very close to 45
  • hurricane Betsy, 1965, half of New Orleans flooded
  • hurricane Camille, 1969, 36 years ago

Again, the disaster response dept. FEMA supposed to oversee and prepare for such events had been fully stocked by president Bush with political appointees (mates) with no experience in such a business.

A reminder of important things for traders.

  1. In early January of this year, the worlds richest man declared that the greenback was ripe for shorting: "The ol' dollar is going down. It is a bit scary. We are in unchartered territory when the world's reserve currency has so much outstanding debt." Buffet took his advice and shorted as well. See the daily US dollar chart attached. Both lost what might be a small fortune to we commoners. They might be right, but not yet. 2007 will be a year to watch for something further emotionally. See the monthly chart.

    A lesson there, when a clear winner in one field, but who knows absolutely nothing about trading, professes an opinion like that, usually it shows some sort of important gann timing. Nerves of steel - or a lot of money - is required to trade against a weekly futures chart trend. So if these two can't force a market to go their way, we have got no hope. Remember, futures markets are bigger than all individual players.

  2. The Balibo five:
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1897195,00.html
    Remember those journalists ? Only a chart will ever reveal the truth of any given situation. Note again the thirty year thing, very common to see the truth come out at that time frame. How is it ? We pay our taxes only to have bald face lies given back to us, practically continuous.

In view of the above, and all the obl stuff and new rules we are getting in Australia, the world will have to be careful. Here is what James Madison, one of the fathers of the US constitution had to say on the 20th April 1795 about what war does to society:

Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes; and armies and debts and taxes are the known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. In war, too, the discretionary power of the Executive is extended; its influence in dealing out offices, honours, and emoluments is multiplied; and all the means of seducing the minds, are added to those of subduing the force, of the people [There is also an] inequality of fortunes, and the opportunities of fraud, growing out of a state of war, and . . . degeneracy of manners and of morals . . . No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.
Understood very well by George Orwell.

Stick to what I have taught you about how the economy truly works, it will stand you in good stead. There will be a complete confusion in the next two years as all the other economists struggle to work out what is happening. The 18 year thing has a good pedigree.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/melbourne-houses-tipped-to-boom-again-in
-2009/2005/12/04/1133631146363.html

finally, if confirmed, note the date of the visit and add thirty years.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/bin-laden-may-have-visited-us
/2005/12/05/1133631172727.html
be assured it will be important to both players. It is believable because the timing fits almost precisely.

US $ Daily Chart
US $ Monthly Chart

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