Was reviewing the real estate material for the site recently. Just out
The US began selling off its real estate, officially and under a set
legal structure, on May 10th, 1800. (A birth date as Gann might say)
After that, here is what happened:
1818, peak in land sales, downturn
1836, peak in land sales, depression
1854, peak in land sales, depression
1869, peak in land sales (Chicago peak, 1872), depression
1888, peak in land sales (1890 was the count off 1800), depression
1908, peak in land sales, downturn cut short by world war
1926, peak in real estate speculation, depression
1944, peak in real estate construction (govt financed mainly in this
cycle), downturn cut short, in fact eliminated by rebuilding from war's
In other words, for the first 144 years of official real estate
enclosure in the US, land sales peaked in eighths of 144 - every 18
years. If you have done even just a little of my Gann material, you
will know that this is not insignificant.
Besides, what is the statistical probability of this having been random?
Overlaying the 2nd square of 144 from the birth date of 1800, the
situation is a little less obvious after 1944
plus 18 = 1962, real estate slowdown but no general economic decline (7
years - 90 months - after the 1955 land price low I might add.)
1998, nothing really
2016, real estate recovery period in my view
interesting, but it is not helping us forecast a future event
If, however, we apply the second square from the clear 1955 US land
price low, we can say plus 18 is 1972/3 (difficult to pinpoint the exact
high to a particular month), then recession, plus 18 to 1989 / 90, then
recession, plus 18 to 2008 or there abouts. All the signs indicating
this year - 2008 - as a peak year are manifesting: competition to build
the world's tallest/ biggest/largest (It's a male thing I'm sure), high
land price, rampant speculation, easy credit, stock markets going up
into new all time highs, (or close to them, with markets continuing to
climb that all important wall of worry), probable credit tightening
towards the end of the decade and into 2008. Very much an historical
repeat is it not ?
Anybody who can explain categorically why this has been such an
incredibly regular 18 years is going to make themselves immortal,
I have my own belief - the planets, driving the seasons driving
commodity prices driving interest rates driving economic behaviour, only
possible when overlaid with an economy that permits the enclosure of
government granted licenses leading to a tradable commodity, the largest
of which is land value. (What a mouthful) But is the world ready to
hear this ? The cake for this present 18 year cycle, if that is what it
turns out to be, though it's still baking, is about two to three years
from being cooked if history and this 18 year thing is to repeat...
Can't wait to see what happens.
Click here to see the file...