Next year's set up - Fri, 12 Nov 2004

Our market, for 2004 / 05 is currently repeating its late 1997 history. Therefore, our market should top out mid january, and then have ninety days down to mid April. Let's see what happens. 2005 looks like being volatile with several nice tops and bottoms during the year, as far as the index is concerned.

That is the SPI timing. The following comes out for the US: (some of you will have seen bits of this before)

obl declared war on the US (not that anyone noticed at the time) back in May 1998. (28th I believe) This was about 1200 days before 9/11 (Just a little short of 1260 days which is 180 weeks, which is 45 months.) 9/11 plus 1200 days comes out around xmas of this year. 9/11 plus 180 weeks is 22nd feb 2005. As it happens this is pretty close (not exact) to half way between mid january 2005 and mid April 2005. You can expect something around this time to drive markets off the SPI january highs, and US markets lower (at least initially for the first few months of 2005. Expect feb 2005 or around then to be eventful. Anyway, see what happens.

Funny how the recent obl tape came out on his usual end of month degree date. Oct 28 in this case. Count plus 90 degrees to jan 27 or so, which is one year from last years jan high and significant three day drop after that. So I would watch this date with interest too. Whatever, next years events will work to key time frames, of that you can be certain.

Must point out too, the news does not have to be bad. I forecast it to be bad only because i anticipate a Jan high for our market, so then something needs to happen to change investor emotion. But it could go the other way too, if the news is early to drive markets higher into January.

V-E day after the bombing of Pearl Harbour in 1941 (2 times 30 years before 9/11, the year pilots started taking their planes into ships, not buildings) was 42 months, so we are coming up to a repetition of history here at 60 year interval. Interesting times.

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