A couple of things we could watch for this week SPI:
April 7 is 90 deg Jan 7, which was the high of the year so far, and is
180 deg off Oct 10, low of last year. On such dates I look for mid
points. Next mid point to watch at this time could be 2939, half of 3200
high and 2679 recent low. Note also, 2937 is half of previous 213 point
recent up range, added to 2831 25/3 low. The 2*1 angle off Jan 7 high is
at 2828 April 4. The next mid point higher is 3089, being (3500 +
2679)/2. Could be something to watch for May 5th or 7th. Interesting
price, have a look at the three tops here recently. Previous tops and
bottoms often end up as mid points themselves later on. This can help
you determine price areas of future changes in trend. (i.e. prices
around 2679 causing prices around 3100 to be mid point of the run down
-I did not see this at the time however, only in hindsight this one -
but helps for next time, or other markets). The 1*1 line off Oct 10 is
around 3092 May 5th.
Trade the market as it unfolds however. Could watch also for mid point
of last months low and high, 2679 and 2912, being 2796, but the SPI
looks to be pushing up into Apr 7, not down. I did see yesterday that
Jan 7 to Mar 13 low was 46 trading days - not sure if that means
anything - though I keep count of such things now - trading days in
addition to calender days that is - more than I used to, i.e. 30, 45 90
trading days etc.
Just in case you've been lazy, here are the Gann degree dates for this
year, measured off past major high and low for the SPI, and off the
birth date Feb 16th 1983: (should see the turns for the Euro off its
birth date, 4/1/99, pretty much in line with the SPI early month dates,
all born at the right time ?)
Jan 6 15 21
Feb 3 14 20 (came in on 21st)
Mar 4 or 5 1721 (came in on 24th)
Apr 4 15 21
May 5 16 22
June 5 1623
July 7 18 24
Aug 6 or 7 18 25
Sept 8 18 24
Oct 7 or 8 17 or 20 24
Nov 7 17/18 24
Dec 5/8 17 23
The major changes of trend for our stock market will happen on the above
dates, unless history stops repeating of course. You should also run a
30 60 90 etc degree count off last years low, Oct 10 (which itself was
off the high last year of Mar 7 - this may make the early month dates a
little tricky) and also still maintain a count off sept 11, which is
proving important in the US. As ever, the 28th of some months may prove
important also, see the back of Gann's stock book, as he noted sometimes
in the dates he gave out at the back there. (p24)
I look for valid mid points and / or repeat runs to get high probability
turning points at these times. Measure the mathematics of past market
action and you will see what I mean. The dates above also work on the
Aust bond market. Other markets, the process is similar, off past major
highs and lows. See recent oil moves for illustration. (It's never too
late Maria, if you missed the first move.)
Some clarification for readers:
futures contracts that are cash settled, e.g. indices and currencies
especially, you need only watch, chart and trade the current contract,
i.e. the 'spot' chart. You do not need to do like the grains, and chart
the month specific contract such as Dec cotton; this is irrelevant for
indices and currencies.
I can tell you also, currencies probably trend the best of all, you
should choose to study one if you can. I am yet to make up my mind as
regards say oil and gold, whether to chart month specific or not. What I
have done for oil is trade the spot contract, then closer to contract
rollover, just watch the next contract, i.e. for March oil, I watched
May also. Am trading the May figures and contract. I think the
illustrations here should show you what I mean. Any questions, email me.
lt crude spot 31-3 - PDF
lt crude may - PDF
Curious how the war fighting seems to be gearing up again for the more
important battles coming into April 4 and 7, or am I imagining this?
The propaganda goes on here. If I were to put AL Jazeera and Fox news
side by side you could swear you were watching different wars. Images on
CNN of western forces singing Gods praises on Sunday brought forth the
word crusade to me. If I had time, some cycle work relating past
crusades would be interesting. Later maybe. (Was the last one 2*360
years ago per chance ?)
Perhaps one day the world might rise above petty religious beliefs