Mid points again - emailed to subscribers - April 2nd, 2003

A couple of things we could watch for this week SPI:

April 7 is 90 deg Jan 7, which was the high of the year so far, and is 180 deg off Oct 10, low of last year. On such dates I look for mid points. Next mid point to watch at this time could be 2939, half of 3200 high and 2679 recent low. Note also, 2937 is half of previous 213 point recent up range, added to 2831 25/3 low. The 2*1 angle off Jan 7 high is at 2828 April 4. The next mid point higher is 3089, being (3500 + 2679)/2. Could be something to watch for May 5th or 7th. Interesting price, have a look at the three tops here recently. Previous tops and bottoms often end up as mid points themselves later on. This can help you determine price areas of future changes in trend. (i.e. prices around 2679 causing prices around 3100 to be mid point of the run down -I did not see this at the time however, only in hindsight this one - but helps for next time, or other markets). The 1*1 line off Oct 10 is around 3092 May 5th.

Trade the market as it unfolds however. Could watch also for mid point of last months low and high, 2679 and 2912, being 2796, but the SPI looks to be pushing up into Apr 7, not down. I did see yesterday that Jan 7 to Mar 13 low was 46 trading days - not sure if that means anything - though I keep count of such things now - trading days in addition to calender days that is - more than I used to, i.e. 30, 45 90 trading days etc.

Just in case you've been lazy, here are the Gann degree dates for this year, measured off past major high and low for the SPI, and off the birth date Feb 16th 1983: (should see the turns for the Euro off its birth date, 4/1/99, pretty much in line with the SPI early month dates, all born at the right time ?)

Jan 6 15 21
Feb 3 14 20 (came in on 21st)
Mar 4 or 5 1721 (came in on 24th)
Apr 4 15 21
May 5 16 22
June 5 1623
July 7 18 24
Aug 6 or 7 18 25
Sept 8 18 24
Oct 7 or 8 17 or 20 24
Nov 7 17/18 24
Dec 5/8 17 23

The major changes of trend for our stock market will happen on the above dates, unless history stops repeating of course. You should also run a 30 60 90 etc degree count off last years low, Oct 10 (which itself was off the high last year of Mar 7 - this may make the early month dates a little tricky) and also still maintain a count off sept 11, which is proving important in the US. As ever, the 28th of some months may prove important also, see the back of Gann's stock book, as he noted sometimes in the dates he gave out at the back there. (p24)

I look for valid mid points and / or repeat runs to get high probability turning points at these times. Measure the mathematics of past market action and you will see what I mean. The dates above also work on the Aust bond market. Other markets, the process is similar, off past major highs and lows. See recent oil moves for illustration. (It's never too late Maria, if you missed the first move.)

Some clarification for readers:
futures contracts that are cash settled, e.g. indices and currencies especially, you need only watch, chart and trade the current contract, i.e. the 'spot' chart. You do not need to do like the grains, and chart the month specific contract such as Dec cotton; this is irrelevant for indices and currencies.

I can tell you also, currencies probably trend the best of all, you should choose to study one if you can. I am yet to make up my mind as regards say oil and gold, whether to chart month specific or not. What I have done for oil is trade the spot contract, then closer to contract rollover, just watch the next contract, i.e. for March oil, I watched May also. Am trading the May figures and contract. I think the illustrations here should show you what I mean. Any questions, email me.

lt crude spot 31-3 - PDF
lt crude may - PDF

Curious how the war fighting seems to be gearing up again for the more important battles coming into April 4 and 7, or am I imagining this? The propaganda goes on here. If I were to put AL Jazeera and Fox news side by side you could swear you were watching different wars. Images on CNN of western forces singing Gods praises on Sunday brought forth the word crusade to me. If I had time, some cycle work relating past crusades would be interesting. Later maybe. (Was the last one 2*360 years ago per chance ?)

Perhaps one day the world might rise above petty religious beliefs

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