Lessons in licenses and time - emailed to subscribers - Tue, 02 May 2006

If you want a lesson in government granted licenses, see the chart for Cazaly resources. (not attached here) They picked up a lease when Rio forgot to renew it. All legal. Now the W.A. resources minister has simply 'decided' to give it back to Rio. Shows what happens when the government opens itself up to such influences. Government corruption all stems from this process, as I show you in the cycles classes. Said the Australian: "The dispute began in August when Rio missed a deadline to renew the shovelanna lease, which it had held for nearly 30 years." Interesting timing I note. It's almost always about the 'rent'. This is the driving process. What the government giveth, the government can taketh away.

for some reading:
make of that what you will, who knows ? Remember, such sites are other peoples opinions, and we don't trade other peoples opinions, do your own work, plus trade good patterns, especially breaks into all time new highs from a triangle. As such, when a break like that happens it doesn't matter what the rest of the market is doing, just take the pattern.

A minor stock market top in the current uptrend at this point would give us another interesting timing aspect as well. From the ending of the boom in 2000 to current is 6 years, 72 months, half of Gann's most important number for his square of 144. A further 72 months takes us to 2012, always a good time of the decade for lows, and fits in with a possible low for the real estate cycle. Just numbers at the moment. But the similarities of events are impressive at such half way points: 2000, resource stocks turned internet mining, this year, internet companies like C2 Global buying into commodities projects. It is all about the rent.

We had a stock debut on the ASX last week, HFA Investments. This stock, a hedge fund, if I understand it correctly, invests in other hedge funds to produce "a low-risk, blended return." Mmmm. Hedge funds investing in other hedge funds. Smells of a bubble coming, easy money around presently.

As i said to you, it will all start to come out in the end:


i can confidently forecast, based on history, that this is only the tip of the iceberg. In the next downturn - and rest assured there will be another one sometime - when things start to get tight and dollars have to be accounted for - that's when the proverbial will really start to hit the fan. Even more so if there is a change of government in the US, when much document destruction can be expected. But it is the eventual downturn that will bring the ongoing corruption to the fore, not just a change of government. Same as all past cycles. I note too, these articles are never in the top ten most viewed articles at the Age, the top ten being reserved mostly for articles that have far more emotion involved (mine disaster), royalty or sex. Political corruption and contract embezzlement, well we just expect it from big business connected to government don't we ? We are what we read.

Which is why big businesses like young James' outfit Consolidated Press continues to grab those casino licenses in Russia, China and elsewhere: http://www.theage.com.au/news/golf/big-johns-monster-habit/2006/05/02
Daly's honesty in confronting the problem would probably make him a very good trader however. (If he took his stops...) He's on the wrong side of those licenses though, is he not ? Visitors to casinos NEVER end up rich. Same as the stock market. Short term visitors to there seldom end up rich either. The stock market is not a Casino and requires hard work, dedication, risk management skills and practice to master one's emotions and invest / trade constructively. Gann said that too of course.

and this:


further commodifying land, easier and easier to trade in the government granted license. It guarantee's future cycles as more countries enclose that value, making it easier to trade in.

Speaking of which:
aet, down after the news, as almost always. The retrace, where to ? To the mid point naturally. Check your chart. They didn't call Gann 'Mr Mexican Pete' for nothing. Which is where I learnt it, as I delight in showing those who attend the Gann classes.

He showed too, the best trades are those that break into all time new highs, or those breaking upwards out of long term consolidation patterns. (All time new highs are better.) So one could consider to watch, say, oly for a trade into new highs, ecm for a break of long term accumulation.

But never rely on other persons opinions, do your own study is best. Then have the discipline to watch and wait. Otherwise you tie your money up in stocks going nowhere.

Chart - ECM
Chart - OLY

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