Late sept update - sent to subscribers - September 28th, 2002

Attached, some writing on the credit cycle. Years of research in just that few pages, to sort out how the banks really operate. There is very little on the subject in English literature. Feedback welcome.

(posted in the banking section of the new site)

I will send a file this week that came across my desk, on Elliott wave. I'm not big on Elliott wave stuff personally, but this one I found of interest.

We have some numbers for a forecast on the Dow now; 19/3/02 high, 10672 points. 24/7 low at 7522. Range of 3140 in 127 days. High 22/89072, repeat run forecasts a low at 5936, for Dec / Jan. If that July low does break convincingly, you could see a bit of panic in the market; good to be short a stock or two if that developed, because some stocks would no doubt over run targets on the downside in panic selling. Any bottom will come on a recognizable date you can be sure. (the repeat time run for the next Dow range repeat comes out at Dec 28, so it was of interest to see the drop Friday, sept 27, 90 deg prior) You can do the same calculation on our market. The range on the SPI to use is 558 points.

For a quick visual on how tops and bottoms often end up being mid points of some future run, see the monthly AEI chart. (not attached here)

MRL chart weekly shows you how a stock will go sideways at mid points of extremes, in this case also is 50% of the high, and a past top.

The trades are there, if you happen to be watching. This column and the virtual gave plenty of warning, MCP, above 213 to mid point. (The stock is being bought in advance of the dividend payable.)
Short on ALL below 503, a good one to have been on. I hope you were too. You could do worse that take profit on the degree date, 24th, for a quick trade, or stay in for a longer potential run, after a retracement.

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