June 6 update - Sun, 06 Jun 2004

Markets often continue bullish into the first four days of the month - as per this month
unrelated perhaps, but reading a book about the 1857 panic, "The Banks of New York and the Panic of 1857", one section was describing how banks function, duties of the staff etc, and how banks frauds had been perpetrated in the past:

"the researches of the forger have been carried so far as to discover that the fourth of the month, and especially of certain months, as of March, October, and November, is what bankers call a heavy day, and is more favourable for his tricks that most others."

Now ordinarily such a sentence to the casual reader would not attract undue attention - unless the reader followed dates and stayed alert to what is being read. Can you see this - a pattern noted by the forger, whereby some banking days were going to exhibit more activity - emotion - than others, which in this instance the forger is considering reliable enough to continue into the future, enough to defraud the bank on one day in preference to another.
Anyway, was just a sentence in some book... who knows ?

I venture to suggest, most financial statements etc get mailed out at month end - (each 30 days) holders review them, then decide upon their action - which we all do together. Quarterly statements the same - every 90 days.

Again to dates,
the 27th may for obl linked attacks once more, this time in Saudi Arabia. Simple forecast that one - 60 months from his war declaration, and other things already put in previous emails. Muslim, Jewish, Christian, makes no difference, it all works according to planetary time. Past highs and low times, create your next ones. I thought the market would low at this time date (or just after it, 444 to 448 days after the Mar 13th low of last year)- it didn't, so as you can see i have still some work to do in working out whether these dates will produce tops or bottoms. You can see in the spi chart, how the market told us in advance the date would be important (a trine from Jan 27, more important though, Jan 27 saw a marked sell off afterwards). Since you have seen that the timings can be forecast, then it must somehow be doable to know in advance if it is to be a high or a low. That knowledge would be the real winner - for obvious reasons. Still working on that one. (Actually i think it is tied up with our calender day to trading day relationship, more on that when we next get together.) 90 degrees - square - from Jan 27 saw on April 29 the markets largest one day fall in well over a year, on China downturn fears. (Currency traders had figured it out the day before). In our calender day to trading day scenario, something had to happen to push our market to May lows. More on this later.

In relation to China jitters, see jbm -something has to occur to drive these 50% retraces. Two thoughts on jbm - yes I am hedging my bets on this one - but i think the China overheating fears may be a little premature, and all markets tend to over run, then retrace, as commodities did recently, and oil is doing now, so this stock, p/e 5 and yield 11% if the numbers are correct is worth an investigation.

180 months from Tiananmen this week by the way - so watch China round up the usual dissidents - er I mean suspects - at this 'politically sensitive' 15th anniversary year time.

Pierpont May 14 goes into the NAB history, describing the first (and biggest) board room brawl of the bank, upon its founding, in 1858, extending into 1859. Recent ruccous, 2003, with the rogue trading. I make that 144 years later. Interesting number as it happens.

Keep in mind Gann's Decadial cycle, year 1 down, 2 a low, 3 up, 4 retracement of year 3 gains, sometimes sees interest rates up a little, 5 strongly up, never yet in 120 years been a down year, (gann's year of ascension he called it, whatever that might mean, but sounds biblical), 6 up, 7 potential crash, 8 recovery, 9 strong, even zero, peak year, sometimes the peak occurring at end of year 9. Looks good for this year, year 4 of a decade, i think sideways from here, both up and down but in a range. The next key time for market emotion is between July 28 and August 6th, meaning we will get one of those yearly seasonal turns between these dates. My guess, and I stress it is a guess, would be that it will be interest rate related.

Seems info is coming out now in response to Moore's new film Fahrenheit 9/11, great title
Speculating here a little, it would be very interesting to know the times these Saudi's started getting out - before or after other authorities had proof of the hijackers nationality. Remember, it took some time - a week - as i recall, (memory that far back is not good to rely on) to say categorically who the 9/11 perpetrator was. Makes for interesting speculation as to whether key presidential figures knew something beforehand...
Was public knowledge of obl's involvement held back until all the family was out ?
An honest government would be taking all out steps to get to the bottom of it all. The fact that is doesn't needlessly adds to the conspiracy conjecture.

Note the hype going into the 60th anniversary of the D Day landing at Normandy. Note especially that we do not take the time to celebrate the 59th or 61st anniversary year - it is the 60th. This is twice a circle (cycle) of 360 degrees when viewed in a non linear fashion. Note too the way it comes back like a circle does, this being the first time a German chancellor has been invited to attend.

Just out of interest, the D-Day photos everyone sees were taken by Robert Capa. Now if you ever want to read a truly inspiring and awesome life story, read his. Born in Hungary with an unpronouncable name, he went to Paris and in his teens took up photography. He believed he was - or would become - the greatest photographer the world would ever see. Of course no one believed him, but he believed in himself. So he changed his name, the Capa comes from the Kapra film producer of the era, to an American sounding name, took some war photos around the Spanish civil war i think it was, then hawked them around Paris as taken by the 'great war photographer' Robert Capa. No one in Paris had heard of this 'Capa', but believed him anyway and the photos duly published. Though the false id was soon exposed, Capa went on to become the most celebrated war photographer ever. He believed in himself even though others didn't. Really he created the so called great American photographer, a fiction, then went on to be just that. Now there is a lesson. Capa's D Day photos were originally 4 35 mm reels, but three were spoiled whilst being developed -unavoidable accident apparently - and just 11 shots were saved from ruin. The photos formed the visual basis of the first 35 minutes of the film Saving Private Ryan, believed to be a reasonably authentic reconstruction of what happened at (code named Omaha beach), Normandy. If you ever get the chance, read Capa's life story. Capa ended up the first journalist killed in Vietnam, he stood on a land mine trying to get a better angle on a photo.

and this, scientists routinely altering tests to get the result they want. Hey what's a little distortion matter to the result eh ?
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/05/31/1085855496939.html# Public pronouncements are designed to influence and sell, and will never tell you what you need to know

Only the chart shall set you free, so, back to business:
year 4 can be difficult charting and trading - markets go sideways historically. Watch for recovery in earnings stories, and any charts of companies _with earnings_ that break into new highs. If the chart continues up after the break (along with the inevitable retracement of course), hold. eg;
aei (not sure of earnings on this one though)
afl (excellent triangle break, but remember, the chart as it looks now,
did not look like this at the break)
cnd, not a new high, but we have a good monthly mid point target there,
rdf same
rpd (maybe a little thin though)

harder to find these this year, be patient and await the break, so watch always the new highs list. Don't force a trade, if you find yourself with nothing to do - pick up a Gann book and DO his examples - ie don't just read him.

JBM Monthly - PDF
JBM Weekly - PDF
SPI June 6 - PDF

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