July email - emailed to subscribers - Sun, 03 Jul 2005

Hi all
well I had the chance to re-read Fred's book on the plane over. Let me be blunt: you simply must have this book to read and make notes in yourself. The book will jump out at you especially having done my classes. The real estate cycle MUST repeat. Get the book and see for yourself why. Only the exact timing remains slightly in doubt, tho 18 years looks likely.

For a good review of the book, see
history is best studied in 18 year segments - if you have done my classes, you know why already.

whilst on the subject, some further reading

have a look at the 'Kelo' decision of the US supreme court last month - the rule of government granted licences, not the rule of law.

to some stocks
you don't always have to just get new highs, try clt, repeat run into mid point of the extremes, which has a reasonable chance of success in my view. (Tis a pattern I have seen heaps of times) Let's see what happens. If the repeat run develops, you can be sure that a news release will push the stock into that all important mid point. I will leave you to do the actual numbers.

asl, good chance of a repeat as well if the stock can clear 76

don't trade and then hold for dividends - see bso

Interesting development in Iran; was Ahmaninejad part of the hostage drama or not ? That hostage siege itself lasted 444 days - 360 plus 84. (or five quarters) Actually 448 is the more important number. You will see quite a number of ranges bottom to top in the SPI ran 444 to 448 days in the past. The drama started in Tehran, Nov 4, 1979. So with recent developments, one would expect it to have more life in it yet, up to 30 years hence. The drama caused a surge in oil prices. The Iranian theocracy will turn 30 at the end of this decade, as Israel turns 60. Interesting times ahead. This area of the world will be pivotal for the next five years, more than usual at least anyway.

CLT Chart
ASL Chart

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