Jan effect - Sun, 12 Jan 2003

Check out the january effect - consistent pattern, low mid December, top Jan 7. (I believe US coys pay dividends in January, hence the early buying)

Always keep watch for triangles - kyc- reliable patterns those ones
(sorry for the files size, hopefully will get these smaller soon)

In the year or two just gone, it has been interesting to note; 60 years back, Japan entering the war with kamakazi pilots, ie planes used as weapons; 30 years back, one of the top agenda items for the then Mcmahon govt, terrorist actions. 30 years being 360 months, 60 years 2 by 360.

Note the the Mcmahon govt in 1972 released a huge increase in government spending - plenty of pork barrels, tax cuts etc - in an effort to be re-elected. This was 17 years into the property cycle of the time; the govt deficit being further inflationary and feeding land value and other asset prices. Observe recent bush announcements, economic stimulus packages etc designed to inflate the US economy so he stands a better chance of re-election in 2004. War spending is designed to do the same, (as well as take local problems of the front page). We are 11 years into this property cycle. I forecast it to run the full 18 years again.

I note Aust property developer stocks near highs or trending up at present - fkp, atr, wwd - to name a few; that is a market judgement suggesting improving earnings for these companies and is not suggesting a property downturn any time soon.

Jan Effect 02 - PDF
Jan Effect 03 - PDF

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