Now that you know, or should know:
a) to trade only ever with the trend, unless you have very good reasons
otherwise e.g. on a time basis,
b) that buying / selling the breaks out of accumulation / distribution
is an effective way to trade profitably, whilst minimizing your risk as
much as is possible in a market environment.
We can now look at some more original Gann methods. In Gann's commodity
course (yes it deals with commodities, but his rules can be applied to
stocks also), Gann lists a number of very useful rules. Rule 2, page 18
of the course I have, Gann gives his buying at double or triple bottoms
buy against double or triple bottoms and protect with stop loss order (a
few) cents away according to the price and activity.
Markets have a memory, i.e. the buyers and sellers do remember where
they have transacted, other players dc watch similar levels, and note
them when stocks get back to such levels again. This is why stocks make
tops and bottoms often around the same level. This Gann rule is well
known by professional traders, though they might not realize Gann said
it first, and followed by them regularly I would suggest. (Note markets
don't double top and bottom because of Gann rules, Gann saw it happening
often, and wrote about it; and markets still behave this way.) I will
teach you to apply it properly.
So, the chart for ILU for example, we can expect now to see buying re-
enter at previous low of 420, and a retracement back higher off this
level. (I can't help but notice, 310 + 533 = 421.5 by the way, another
Gann rule that comes later in the commodities course. Put the rules
together in a disciplined fashion and it is a very powerful system.)
Now his rules must be read with existing knowledge. The rule does not
mean that at 420 you charge right in and buy, a few days accumulation
evidence at this price would be good to see for example. But knowledge
of this rule could have helped you buy KCN the past week, stop loss at
215/219 under prior low; a stock in a strong position. Do you know how
to identify a stock in a strong position? Go back and do chapters 18 and
19 of his Truth of the Stock tape, and then do chapter 5 of Wall Street
stock selector. And no, don't just read the chapters, RE-DO the examples
he gives you, on our own charts of his notes, by hand.
The fact that gold finished retracing 50% last week is also useful to
know. On the weekly KCN chart, price is still above the moving average.
Do not confuse Gann's rule 2 here with trying to buy a double bottom on
SBC say, at the end of June, where price was below the moving average,
in a down trend. Not a strongly positioned stock therefor is it! (Even
though it was 30 degrees from previous low, the trend is wrong, so you'd
be buying against the trend, where the retracement back will not be very
strong, wasting precious capital.)
See the Newcrest weekly chart for a recent example of the market buying
at previous lows, and what you can look for to apply this rule in
future. Gann goes on to say something like this:
Do not buy a stock approaching the same low area a 4th time. On the 4th
approach, the stock almost always will fall thru the previous low price,
and go lower.
See for example, the chart of ALL. An effective short below 503 now. The
stock looks all the more appealing tc short, since I recall Aristocrat
having at least one, if not two stock splits on the way up, 1998/9. This
means there is now a lot more stock available to be offered by willing
sellers, if selling really gets under way. Like CPU, which also had
several splits on the way up. I would note that the 8th seems relevant
to the ALL stock at present.
IDT weekly chart is another example. See also AMP weekly. A consistent
chart pattem that Gann would have picked up on.
ILU - PDF
IDT - PDF
ALL - PDF