Forecasts - Wed, 07 Jul 2004

I noted with interest the handover of Iraq back to Iraqis occurred 15 months from the invasion date - half of 30. Sept next year is 30 months from march 03, so you can bet news will come out at this time that is relevant to Iraq. Would not at all be surprised for example if on this date the former President was sentenced or executed for example. Emotions will run to time frames. Note the handover was two days early and timed in with the degree count of Jan 27.

Rates adjusted up slightly in the US - we had the perverse situation there whereby if that had not been done, the market would probably have been a bit upset and tanked for a few days. The market knows the fed is behind the curve now so to speak - in other words rates are too low. They also know the political pressure must be heavy to get shrub re-elected. Eyes on the yield curve, not whether rates go up or not.

booming car sales
hardly the stuff of imminent downturn.

Berlusconi, Italy's richest man - and he's the PM - wants more immigration

Hope you can see why he does that. (Lower wages for his businesses, higher land prices for his investments)

and this assuming history repeats - and this maybe a big assumption - (but i spend a lot of class time showing you 250 years of repetition) we have our date now for the year of the next recession. World's tallest building has in the past ALWAYS opened in recession, or very close to it. Corner stone has been laid - 60 months is a good time frame for completion

To more pressing matters
keep an eye on aei - this stock has an interesting technology. coh > 23.80 (probable takeover bid coming if that happens soon)


plenty of breaks coming now

Azaria just keeps coming back to haunt us - well we are a year short of 300 degrees this year, by month count for the Azaria date chronology date when the inquest started, and then the first finding on feb 20, to the day of the disappearance for interesting numbers
2nd inquest at 70 weeks
2nd trial at 108 weeks
found guilty 115 weeks
cleared after the 3rd inquest at 15 years (almost exactly) (180 months)

This may be last email for a while - plenty of study now. See how the china thing caused the mid point retr. on many stocks. Mkts are in a bull phase, so there will be more of this along the way. Two key times to watch for significant new highs, then a retr, are Aug 6 and Jan 15 next.

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