Forecasting - emailed to subscribers - August 2nd 2002

Here is how Gann might have thought about the remainder of the year, one scenario at least.

The US is in a bear market. The definition, officially, of a bear market, is when the index in question has fallen more than 20% from the previous high. How long might this last, where might the bottom be? Gann would have first looked for a repetition of history.

For a time:
The previous bear market ran 293 days. Our all time high, 14/2/02, (one of our degree dates I note) add 293 days gives us Dec 4th 2002. Our market did double top, 7/3 and 8/3, with the 14/2 high. 7/3 + 293 days = 25/12/02 and 26/12/02.

Half of 293 is 146.5. 14/2 + 146 = 10/7/02, I note a lovely top 9/7, it sticks out. I note also, solid lows in Aust, 26/6 and 26/7.
So I would be watching December for the low if we get lower lows from here on. Dec 4th is our eclipse date on the new moon, wouldn't you know it, 6th is our degree date, 6th is more important. 3O degrees prior would tell us which it was going to be.

For a price:
I am working the futures figures here, take the accumulation lows, 1054 + 1191 + 1341, average is 1195, plus high at 3500, divide by 2 to get half way = 2348. We could also do 1341, the 1992 low and start of the uptrend really, + 3500/2 = 2420. 2348 and 2420 averaged is 2384, note the 87 top was 2387. Good symmetry there for support levels if it ever got that low. Market will be front page if it does, time would be to do the opposite to the crowd. Our market won't go that low without the Dow moving much lower; the Dow would be back by half by this time, about 6000 to 6500

Should this scenario develop, AND IT HASN'T YET, by the market making new lows in the months ahead, make sure you have some cash available for xmas bargains.

Is it feasible on a fundamentals level? Son of Bush president. 4th Dec eclipse and new moon, battles start on new moons, the enemy can't see you apparently, 1991 gulf war low and start of battle was the 15th Jan eclipse and new moon. Iraqi dictator, still, US economy needs a boost, (enemies can be handy sometimes), but talk of war unnerves markets until the first shots are fired. Bush family unfinished business, end of decade cycle. All hearsay at the moment.

It's a forecast, I don't trade this way unless the market tells me to. But it is those eclipse dates that keep rolling around that fascinate me.

To other matters:
Paul O'Neill, US Secretary to the Treasury comments the IMF won't lend any more money to Latin America whilst the money gets siphoned off to Swiss bank accounts. Ooops, nothing like a bit of the truth to spark a crisis. (When the response gets a bit uppity, you can be sure you have hit a nerve) Uruguay declares a bank holiday; too many depositors requesting their money back and guess what, it isn't there. In the strongest possible way I can, I urge you to follow such events, watch them on TV if you can. It would have been like this in early US and European economic development at the turn of the last century and before; the images of what you see here, is the dark side of the process of Fractional Reserve Banking. Banks create credit out of thin air, in days past it was simply printed as money and spent into existence. Now it is ledgered into existence with the stroke of a pen. Galbraith explains this in a reasonable fashion in his Money book. A very important process to understand. Very very few do. Business cycles in action. The situation is at its worst when the credit is created for money loaned against property value as security. When the day arrives where that security value falls below the level of loans outstanding, you get the chance of a bank collapse.

I hope some of you were able to follow all about this in previous business cycles classes.


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