So let's see if we can't continue our market forecasting - this time as
much as possible to be prepared in advance. I will also pass on anything
I find of use in ongoing studies.
Number one, always measure the first range out, against the major trend
previously in operation. This is why I pointed out the range of 558 on
our market last September. (see email 'late sept update' emailed 28 Sept
2002). The first major range out sets the numbers for the ensuing 2 to 3
years. It is that second, repeat range that offers the trader the chance
to make money - always try to be on it - but not always so easy. This
works for all chart time frames, daily, weekly, monthly. But to do it,
one has to be really prepared and focused - something that has escaped
me a bit the past several years - I gave attention to too many other
things - but no more, just the book now in my spare time.
The significance to US life of 11/9/01 is highlighted this month. Sept
01, we had the towers hit on the 11th, market reopened on the 17th,
market lowed on the 21st. 540 deg later, (360 + 180) we have repeat runs
into March 12th, major emotional change to markets on the 17th, start of
bombing 20th. Draw your square and triangle on that circular calender
like how I showed you, and at a glance you will see what I mean. These
dates above are for the US Dow, cash market. Note the Dow futures topped
out last year March 13th, exactly between the topping out of the cash
market, double tops of march 8 and 19th. How about that.
I did also note - perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not, the market action
for March and September of 2000 - you should have a look at that, and
also the market action in 1986,360 months prior, where Sept 11th of that
year resulted in the largest drop in Dow history up until that time.
Second, I have highlighted for you what happened last gulf war, via the
numbers. 1991 spi action.gif
I would suggest to get the zero date for the start of this conflict as
being 4pm French time - that's 1 am Eastern standard time (?)in Oz, the
21st March note, as I think the prior evening's brief attack may have
been an anomaly - though should also be taken into account. Gann tells
you war zero dates are important. As we learnt following the Afghan
conflict. Major US and British casualties will only occur on what I term
Gann dates, which you will be able to calculate in advance. Should the
conflict last long enough for the dates to come into play. Watch
particularly 45 days out, being May 5th. The Gann dates to watch are as
per last years calculation, just following thru to this year, and on.
What we are looking for now are market set ups - how we make our living
trading - at least as how I have tried to put Gann into operation. We
will prepare ourselves in advance for these on all the markets I watch.
Many French, in the emotion of the 17th, first thing in the morning went
out and filled the cars with petrol, in fear of an impending explosion
in the oil price. There is the crowd for you, alive and well. The herd
is usually wrong in other words.
Have you considered the possibility that the French decision to suggest
they would veto a war resolution at the UN may have been a set up? Seems
to me it gave the US the very excuse it needed, and fast, to get war
underway. You can be sure the Bush Regime wanted war, and were pushing
for it. (Though i did not think it would happen so abruptly, as you know).
- The French veto was not actually put to the test in the UN council
- the French military here are actively prepared for war, have or are
presently taking all their vaccines - should see the queue this week at
the Metz hospital and military installations, and are battle ready.
Keep an eye in coming weeks and months to see how quickly, if at all the
French back down (the French never back down !) and mend rifts at the UN
with the British. I might add, and also whether the US make any special
the French in the coming year - this will tell us one way or the other.
Just a thought.
Note the SPI numbers was indicating an emotional reversal coming at the
558 repeat run, which we got close to on March 13. That is what comes
out of left field when such numbers are reached. Learn from this.
The March 12 Dow low, a few things stuck out at first glance for me;
being 6 years - 72 months from top 11th March 1997, 12 years (actually
146 months) from 1991 gulf war low, 62 months Jan 98 low, 53 months Oct
Note for the 21 March Gann dates, markets are back to the mid point of
recent run down, Jan to March, so one could expect the markets to pause
here at least a few days.
Much more to follow in coming weeks.
Click here to see the file...