Did we fluke it, or was that a real rabbit out of the hat ?
Sat, 15 May 2004

The market does move in set time frames, which can at times be forecast. The top has come in, now for the low ??

The next time frame of significance after May 18 to 27, comes up for between July 26 and August 6th.

Watch also 18th May, and 19th June to see how the market is on these days, to help tell us if end July is shaping up as a low or high. At this stage i am thinking end July for a high - if it is, and we are back up at the tops again around 3500 on the spi, and the market fails to continue thru this price, this is a triple top, the retracement from which could be quite pronounced. i think however we will break to new highs. See what happens at the time. But we trade the actuality of course, not the forecast.

The business cycles knowledge indicates to me we have at least a couple of years of growth ahead of us into the 18 year property cycle peak around 2008 or so, which is why i think the market will eventually move to convincing new highs.

The world in general looking more and more Orwellian to me. You might remember George Orwell's 1984. The Ministry of Truth, concerning itself with the distribution of news, the Ministry of Peace, with war, and the Ministry of Love, which maintaining law and order. And the doublethink phraseology, war is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength. With very little ceremony, emperor Putin is put back into the Kremlin promising:
- to develop a pluralistic political system (Putins party United Russia (now there is a doublethink) organizes constantly behind the scenes a constitutional majority in the Parliament),
- to restructure and trim the govt, and eradicate corruption (but offers no change in policy)
- that Russia's success cannot depend on one single party (television remains state controlled, and his party has a stranglehold on govt use of information resources)

The world of 1984 was maintained thru perpetual warfare, giving great excuse for the proles to be kept in perpetual fear of the enemy. The war economy made necessary many sacrifices, but kept the balance, maintained stability, provided jobs etc etc
see http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4947681
One-fifth of current US growth is war related, now spending $500 billion per year on armaments

Call me cynical but the military brass at the top, not to mention the pollies in power, have a huge incentive to string this out, why on earth would they want the capture of public enemy number one, obl. But note, as per in history, the borrowing to pay for the binge will have to be paid at some point, and will accentuate the downturn when bank lending goes into reverse. Go back and re read the 18 year chapters from the cycles course, if you are unsure how this will pan out. Our indicators will pick the time to be ready.

Warmed the heart to see Rummy modestly repentant.
see www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A15981-2004May10.html

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cellblock 1A at Abu Graib, now there is a room 101, straight out of the ministry of Love (those rats gave me nightmares for years)
The President says he had been kept in the dark about the pictures (if the IHT of May 8 is to be believed in their reporting) but it is well known that often it is he, the President, that makes the final decision where an 'enemy combatant' is held, and the interrogation used to extract information
(mind you, if you are going to set your mind on a course of jihad, then you have to expect your futures lows will be pretty low - and deservedly so, no sympathy from me on that score, your future comes out of your past)

The men at the top make it their business to know what is going on surely ? But the scary thing is, if Rummy really did not know what is going on... who then is in control, or is it out of control ?

As to the Proles, well we all know where they are - you only have to travel greyhound anywhere in the US to meet these warriors.

And as for Orwell's telescreen, any govt has easy access to any of our email and phone conversations. Big brother is watching us. Orwell's character Winston came out of room 101 to love big brother in the end.

Bush states publicly Iraq will be free, Iraq will be independent. The largest embassy in the world is under construction in Baghdad - no guesses as to all the listening devices this will contain, still 130,000 troops there, and 14 military bases.

doublethink again

The biggest obstacle to handover of power in Iraq July 1st is the US gun lobby's insistence of the inclusion in the Iraqi constitution of an Iraqi's right to bear arms. More gun sales... War is Peace

And from this ministry of Love in nth Korea;
A train blast in Nth Korea kills hundreds and the govt comes out with unending gratitude for the sacrifices made by the ordinary plain villagers, who above all else, went back into the flames to rescue their pictures and drawings of beloved Dear Leader from destruction, grabbing these items even before their own children. (Yeah right....)

No wonder Gann spoke of human folly in groups, and repeat behaviour, and it being unlikely to change.

Better stick to the cycles research next email I think, it's too depressing. Orwell wrote a great book though.

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