Credit, and those counts - emailed to subscribers - Tue, 13 Dec 2005

thanks to those that send me links from time to time, always interested

this, which shows the influence of credit:

and how as land price goes higher, loans are at increased credit risk - talk about repeat patterns:
and this
the implications enormous
whilst there are so many giving all the right reasons why the real estate mkt in the US should collapse, it won't happen. It has to go on until there is simply no buying power left and that people perceive that everything will be cheaper next year, so the buying can therefore wait. This is some years off yet in my view. Remember, the peak never looks like a peak, because we all feel so good at the time and the view from the peak is, well, limitless.

and again, remember what the papers are for, to put spin between the ads
traders never get what they need to know from newspapers

and for those who like to read spy thrillers, try the UN report into the death of Lebanese ex premier Hariri. John Le Carre could not have written it better at times. Available here, under the date of October 20

to the weather
extreme weather conditions this weekend, bang on time as expected and as I told you to count:

expect heat extremes feb 7 to12, (bushfires ?) this is pretty easy to forecast. It is as gann intimated but could never point out directly in his era - the movement of the planets. We are effected directly too, riots and things, though it is the absence of discretion, being overridden by uor emotions that allows the behaviour to escalate. Good traders know how to overcome such limiting behaviour. Note also, we are just on 52 months from 9/11. Have a look at any really major market top and count 52 days/weeks/months and you will very often see an extreme emotion the other way. (Nasdaq is good on this one) We can be very confident of a turn for the better after January of 2006; a far less violent year can be expected after the 52 month turn.
for the snow extreme, 2005 - 1986 = 19
2005 - 1951 (close to 52 but not exact)
there was also a huge dump of snow, which penetrated the furthest northward ever recorded in Aust, 21 oct, 1995. (120 months)

As to the Sydney beaches violence, the Redfern aboriginal rioting took place in February of 2004.
We were last week 90 to 92 weeks from that emotion. Interesting. The thing i can't do, which i am certain Gann could, was to decide in advance, which of the degree counts comes in more important in the future from big events. What I mean is, from feb last year, 120 weeks is also important, which will be july 2006. 90 or 120, which would be the more significant count off feb 2004 ?. This is the 64 million dollar question so to speak. So the research goes on. Interested in feedback research naturally. Whatever you do though, *always at least do the counting*.

Another Lebanese politician gets a car bomb. We are 301 days today from the Hariri assassination, feb 14 2005.
all the dates so far, almost always on our monthly gann dates

There is a lot coming up for feb 2006 in terms of violent emotion 'echoes', I expect repeats feb 7 to 12 or so. Then a turn for the better. Let's see.

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