thanks to those that send me links from time to time, always interested
this, which shows the influence of credit:
and how as land price goes higher, loans are at increased credit risk -
talk about repeat patterns:
the implications enormous
whilst there are so many giving all the right reasons why the real
estate mkt in the US should collapse, it won't happen. It has to go on
until there is simply no buying power left and that people perceive that
everything will be cheaper next year, so the buying can therefore wait.
This is some years off yet in my view. Remember, the peak never looks
like a peak, because we all feel so good at the time and the view from
the peak is, well, limitless.
and again, remember what the papers are for, to put spin between the ads
traders never get what they need to know from newspapers
and for those who like to read spy thrillers, try the UN report into the
death of Lebanese ex premier Hariri. John Le Carre could not have
written it better at times. Available here,
http://www.un.org/NewLinks/ under the date of October 20
to the weather
extreme weather conditions this weekend, bang on time as expected and as
I told you to count:
expect heat extremes feb 7 to12, (bushfires ?) this is pretty easy to
forecast. It is as gann intimated but could never point out directly in
his era - the movement of the planets. We are effected directly too,
riots and things, though it is the absence of discretion, being
overridden by uor emotions that allows the behaviour to escalate. Good
traders know how to overcome such limiting behaviour. Note also, we are
just on 52 months from 9/11. Have a look at any really major market top
and count 52 days/weeks/months and you will very often see an extreme
emotion the other way. (Nasdaq is good on this one) We can be very
confident of a turn for the better after January of 2006; a far less
violent year can be expected after the 52 month turn.
for the snow extreme, 2005 - 1986 = 19
2005 - 1951 (close to 52 but not exact)
there was also a huge dump of snow, which penetrated the furthest
northward ever recorded in Aust, 21 oct, 1995. (120 months)
As to the Sydney beaches violence, the Redfern aboriginal rioting took
place in February of 2004.
We were last week 90 to 92 weeks from that emotion. Interesting. The
thing i can't do, which i am certain Gann could, was to decide in
advance, which of the degree counts comes in more important in the
future from big events. What I mean is, from feb last year, 120 weeks
is also important, which will be july 2006. 90 or 120, which would be
the more significant count off feb 2004 ?. This is the 64 million
dollar question so to speak. So the research goes on. Interested in
feedback research naturally. Whatever you do though, *always at least
do the counting*.
Another Lebanese politician gets a car bomb. We are 301 days today from
the Hariri assassination, feb 14 2005.
all the dates so far, almost always on our monthly gann dates
There is a lot coming up for feb 2006 in terms of violent emotion
'echoes', I expect repeats feb 7 to 12 or so. Then a turn for the
better. Let's see.