Counting - Sun, 18 Apr 2004

Keep watch as we come into tax loss selling time, for any stand out date patterns.

On clh we may see another June low. Watch of course the mid point of last years run, which we are at already, also maybe for a double bottom a bit lower. It is a debt collection agency i think, so as the banks push more and more loans at increased credit risk persons over the course of the next few years, one would expect such a company to increase earnings, though wait for the chart to tell us of course.

a rent follow up here;
for the true story behind the inventor of the board game monopoly, see
I can vouch for the accuracy of this one, and researched the story myself because the real inventor of the game did so to teach the world about the Henry George reforms, can you believe it, so go directly to jail, do not pass go, and get a great read

T'is worth studying monopoly, this from the Guardian, Jan 24th

"Game plan
The game of Monopoly was indeed designed to promote the ideas of Henry George ('I rolled a two -- and got a ghetto stash,' G2, January 21). But George was not "anti-capitalist" -- in fact, he was a liberal and a believer in free trade. His view, and that of Monopoly's creator Lizzie Magie, was that the system of land ownership prevented capitalism from functioning properly. Landlords are able to extort huge payments from the property-less, as anyone who has landed on a hotel on Mayfair knows, and this grants them monopolistic control of the economy. The point of Monopoly was to show that, with land ownership laws as they are, sooner or later all the money ends up with one player."

This is the basic cause of the cycle, and whilst the rent capitalizes into a tradable commodity, ie land price, the business cycles will always be with us, repeating pretty much exactly, every 18 to 20 years it seems. Study this and you will forecast economic movements well. The players may come and go, but the game remains the same.

Here is a link to the article which evoked the letter:,3604,1127421,00.html

So get in quick;
"More than 2.5 million people from 180 countries have bought property on the Moon and Mars in sales that reached $1 million last year. The scheme is bogus, legal scholars argue, but business is booming and futurists have been forced to ponder the fate of celestial property rights." According to, February 2, 2004. See how mankind will take the basic flaw in economics, and the cause of the cycle, with us into cellestial real estate speculation.

Another obl date for you
In his testimony to the continuing 9/11 commission in the US, cia director Tenet said; "In August 1996, bin Laden in colaberation with radical muslim clerics...issued a religious edict or fatwa in which he proclaimed a declaration of war authorising attacks against western military targets on the Arabian peninsula." Aug 96 to Sept 01, 61 months just out of interest. (It was in may 98, obl went on to issue a war proclamation against the US in general.)

And to something totally unrelated, though some might say musical terrorism 3 members of the original ABBA appeared on-stage at the Prince Edward theatre in the west end of London to mark the 5th anniversary of the play (60 months) but it was 30 years to the day from the group winning the Eurovision song contest with the song 'Waterloo'. (30 years can you believe it. Can you hear the drums Fernando...terrorism alright) Pay attention to the timings, all of us time out accordingly.

Only in France;
was in the 'tabac' yesterday to pick up the Herald Tribune, when the lady serving exclaimed "oooohhhh, un petit garcon?" I looked around naturally to see the little boy she must have been gazing at - no baby in sight. The lady who came in behind me replies "Non Madame, une fille," (a daughter) as she bent down to pick up her precious poodle. Perhaps one advantage to residing in this french village; less chance of being in an underworld gun battle at the restaurant opposite where one lives ! Or at least I hope so. (I never did like the color of their tablecloths.)

Remember the old Petroz stock anyone ? Bought out by the giant US oil coy Conoco Phillips. I used to use this stock in former classes to illustrate how to follow the rent trail, and make improved forecasts, some might remember. When Petroz was bought out, and East Timor subsequently re-founded, I forecast that ultimately the new Timorese leader, or finance minister, would end up well connected to oil, and ultimately lose position because of it. East Timor's PM Mari Alkatiri is currently denying accepting bribes of $A 2.5 million from Conoco, tho' paid into his brother's account in Darwin, to 'assist' in securing further exploration permits.

Many newspapers often have a small section titled "In our pages 100, 75 and 50 years ago", or something similar. Follow the dates when you get the chance. From the IHT, March 27:
1929, New York, staggering under the terrific rush to liquidate, as banks stood calmly aside, with call money at twenty percent, prices on the NY stock exchange crashed downward today, March 26, in the greatest market the Street has ever known. Sales for the day totalled 8,246,700 as compared with the previous record of 6,942,000 made during the bull market of November 23, 1928. Stocks registered losses of from two to thirty points as the sales reached unheard of totals at the end of each trading hour." see gif attached.

Study history, one way you will learn about the future. And a helpful way of putting together the jigsaw that is the market.

AFR article strongly recommended reading, review section, page one, Friday April 2. Ostensibly about the US SUV habit. But it will help you see why Bush has a good chance of re-election, as he appeals to our sense of irrational fear. And about our 'learned helplessness". All traders need to understand this psychology.

Recent upsurge in Iraqi violence seemed highly orchestrated to me. Funny how the barrage of US reporting of it drove presidential candidate Kerry off the front pages, and reduced the momentum. Just a thought.

Watch the follow up after 1964 and Vietnam. Lyndon Johnson flatly refused in this year to consider the cost of the conflict, and how to pay for it (like all good politicians, that one was left for the the next president). But by 1968 it had gotten right out of hand, and '68 saw expenditure cuts and higher taxes, (ie fiscal reductions, as the land cycle was coming into a climax 18 years from the low of 1955), forced on the administration by the markets really. The war lies continued, as did active suppression of any opposition views. For how violent and nasty the administration got in pursuit of suppression of dissent, see the documentary movie about the Chicago seven. 'Steal this Movie' I think it was called.


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