someone ought to tell them it is much easier to own the bank and take
the money, than to go in and rob one
or print their own notes
(I hope the links are still active)
for examining longer term investing in stocks, here is an example. This
follows on from what I try to teach in class.
dividend cut, expense write downs; often signs of a low forming, and aet
has done all that last year. Relate this info (from say the company
annual report) then to the chart. Above 40 is a break of accumulation,
(see your weekly chart) tho in this instance the pattern is not as good
as it could be. Nothing cures high prices like high prices. aet is
linked in with the commodities business, more particularly, supplying
smelter technology. But its new higher tech stuff requires application
to new smelting projects. Higher commodity prices will force this to
happen eventually, when aet should win more contracts. (There is only
one market where supply and demand to not equate and this is in the
market for land and other government granted licenses.)
Smells of a low to me. aet price should recover as more projects seek
to apply the aet technology. But of course this is an if, which is why
we always use a stop loss, and if triggered, do not hang on to a losing
trend. Please note also, this is not in any way an invitation to buy
this stock. The example is given as an extension to my classes. You
should do your own work and make your own decision, then be responsible
To other matters, and for a bit of a rave...:
Ol' jug ears is taking the royal misstress, now wife, to the US. Last
time he was there was in 1985 with Diana. Funny how the emotional
pressure comes round in time...
Lots of behaviour, sadly, at present based on fear. So the public
begins to hoard Roche's Tamiflin and Biota's relenza in the belief it
will assist this birdflu thing. Seems one would do better buying the
company than the drug itself. This Tamiflu is apparantly the only
known drug to have activity against birdflu virus, but such tests were
done in a test tube and on animals. There are no studies, as I
understand it, proving the effectiveness in humans. More likely, any
irrational use will help the virus turn resistant to the drug. And the
current virus does not readily infect humans and cannot spread this way
yet. The infection is only in those with very close contact to ill
birds. Of course governments are doing the correct thing to prepare for
the worst, it is the irrational fear based behaviour that interests me.
Besides, it has been my observation that once something is prepared for,
it almost never ever comes to fruition, which is why if the market ever
gives you time to panic, its all over. (So since Bush is now spending
$7 billion in preparation - oh the drug companies will love that one -
I'd say it is practically certain nothing will come of this.) This is
why most people cannot trade markets, but it would do everyone a whole
heap of good if they were taught better to understand it. Decisions
ruled by fear...
Same with these utterly absurd laws little Johnnie deigns to pass - all
based on fear. Politicians who assume a society cannot fight threats
whilst remaining under rules based on democracy and justice are the real
threats to liberty and freedom. Alas we get the pollies we deserve.
Same goes for both the religions presently in conflict, interpreted by
their present leading scholars as religions ruled with fear. So we
continue to go in circles and repeat our past crusading. Liberate me
Continuing the irrationality, I forecast plenty of books over the next
two or three years forecasting doomsday, with all the alleged natural
catastrophies happening at present. I point out again, see what is
really there, not opinions. More of us than ever before are being
forced to live in areas where we ought not, because the rest of the
space is rented out, speculated in or just plain hoarded.
Global warming though is real. How do I know ? That's easy. Just
watch what the issuers of those government granted licenses - that's
governments themselves of course - are doing, not what they are saying.
Watch therefore, the tiny speck of rock near the North Pole named Hans
Island. The owner of this piece of dirt, currently in dispute, gets to
claim what the meting ice cap will leave uncovered - a probable treasure
chest of natural resources - you know, the rent... And if governments
didn't think the ice was retreating, they wouldn't be fighting over it
(currently the fighting is being conducted civily, but who knows what
can happen if the rent turns valuable.) Denmark, Norway, Russia, US,
Canada and China all making claims presently. The fact that the ice
will retreat is not now being disputed by governments, though they will
not officially tell us that for some time most likely. The only point
of contention is whether this melting is a natural long term cycle or
whether it is something we humans are creating. My view: the rent of
the resources uncovered will blind us for sure and we will most likely
end up fighting the wrong war, as we are doing now.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, call me cynical: the more you study the
outing of cia agant Plame, married to Joseph Wilson the guy that blew
the whistle on the Saddam chasing nukes Nigeria scam - the more you have
to think that Rove plus a few others thought the whole thing up, the
invasion, 'cause it looked good for a Republican / Bush re-election.
Stage-managed. The reasons they used for the US to hit Iraq have
definately been proved to have been fabricated, but were eminently more
'saleable' at the time to the public than the real reasons the US is
there, namely resource security. I won't say anymore. All based on
fear though, on shortages, on the US not having enough.
Meanwhile, the IHT reported (same issue as link above) that the US govt
is now ordering hundreds of uni's, communications companies and cities
around the country to overhaul their on-line networks to make it easier
for their email systems and other networks to be monitored - to help
catch terrorists and other criminals. (Whatever that means) Blessed
are the whistle-blowers, for they shall be forever neutered.
To matters closer to hand:
We get a new Fed chairman soon. I'm excited, 'cause here is what Mr
Bernanke co-authored in 1999 (you wouldn't believe it, but...) He wrote
that central banks should not excessively worry about asset prices (like
houses and stocks) rising unless this effects inflation. Good timing at
15 years into the real estate cycle. Ben's also a pure academic - no
real world experience at all, which means he will tow the monetarist
line, with absolutely no understanding of those govt granted licenses
providing the reasons for credit to be provided by banks, to build the
bubble and oh the excitement builds. The next land price downturn means
Ben will do too little too late enabling history to comfortably repeat.
But we will have to wait and see on this one.
First and foremost, watch the yield curve. Extrapolating a bit: if
asset prices, ie land price continue to build and the conventional
measure of inflation, the CPI, fails to reflect this overheating, then
the Fed may conceivably stand by and watch, if you get my drift.
Looks promising for 2007/8 peak, if not before
Click here to see the file...