It was reported in the Herald Tribune here last week, that the original
military plan for Iraq had planned for civilian rule in 30 days. Always
interesting how we seem to plan in numbers like that. Of course one
needs to be careful on such assessments; like the guy who bought a red
porsche cause no one else had one, then he saw only red porches allover
the roads. Still, interesting number.
And about numbers, no doubt about those 90, 180 degree turns in
markets - SPI, Oct 10, Jan 7, April 17. Degree dates dead on. July 2 to
7 watch closely, I believe it will be a high. Possibly the high for the
year, though i will trade it as the numbers come up. Some say the
markets are random. It's just not possible for me to believe that any more.
Reported here that the only building in Baghdad that has not been
looted, since it is being used by the US military as their new HQ, is
the, wait for it, Iraqi ministry for oil building. True. It's not really
about the oil is it ? Well perhaps not entirely about the oil; The other
buildings left standing were the Iraqi treasury and the banks. Why?
My thoughts - the US will need the records contained there in, to work
out how much Iraq owes to other banks. Can't have them not pay their
debts can we... Apparently strictly avoiding bombing the bank buildings
was agreed to by the US military after substantial lobbying from the
World bank and US treasury. Aside from established religions, banks are
a pretty big vested interest.
Speaking of banks, hardly surprising the locals make attempts to loot
them; first place I'd go if I were a criminal, wouldn't you? And
speaking of which - banks and criminals that is, the new interim Iraqi
leader, appointed by the US to start things up again has plenty of
experience in this area; and you can bet this new interim leader, Ahmad
Chalabi, won't be taking holidays in nearby Jordan, having been
convicted of bank fraud in that country and given 22 years in jail with
hard labour - still to serve. Could you call that bank looting? A rose
by any other name... If you're gonna loot the bank, and
get away with it, powerful friends help. (Will be interesting to see who
he appoints as Iraqi OPEC representative.) Chalabi is a banker, has not
lived in Iraq for over 40 years, and is leader of the Iraqi National
Congress in exile. The INC is being actively backed and supported by the
US dept of defense. You can bet there's been some soul selling going on
All war is deception. It has come out now that several of the US drones
either shot down or landed in the war zone were in the air only to be
shot at and in the process identify Iraqi air defenses so they in turn
could be shot at later by real aircraft; the drones having well and
truly been completely stripped of any important or classified equipment
beforehand. Stock markets work the same way in my view - too many buyers
or sellers - often brokers- with interests inimical to yours. (In 1998
the US firm of Spear Leads - subsequently bought by Goldman Sachs - was
heavily fined for intentionally delaying reports of some trades so as to
secure a competitive advantage, protect its interests and maximize its
profits or minimize its losses. Pierpont of April 11 speaks of this very
thing - frontrunning. You are reading Pierpont aren't you.
2nd Iraqi rebuilding contract goes to Bechtel. Good to see the
rebuilding, but I always look to see the vested interests and
connections behind it. Bechtel tried to build an oil pipeline from Iraq
to Jordan in 1983. Donald Rumsfeld, then Ronnie Raygun's Middle East
peace envoy, met privately with Saddam to try to get it built. As
reported by the IHT from old security archives, Saddam wanted assurances
that Israel would not attack the pipeline once built, Bechtel tried to
secure such an assurance from Israel. The pipeline was never built.
Internal US memos revealed that some of the proceeds of the pipeline
were earmarked for the then governing Labor party in Isreal. Bet that
pleased Saddam no end. Murky isn't it. The CEO of Bechtel was last year
appointed by Bush to serve on the Presidents export council. Directors
of Bechtel include George Schultz and a past executive Casper Weinberger.
All this will help Bush's re-election, which is now in the planning, as
preparations proceed to spend up to $200 trillion, if necessary, to do
so. So the funds go from Treasury, to fat reconstruction profits, to
political donations from (non related) parties. What a round robin.
Excuse the cynicism. You can bet Bush's re-election theme will be
homeland security, especially if the US economy does not improve much,
which is likely till June 2004. Watch closely. What odds for a link
between days of bad economic news and 'sudden' terrorist alerts at home.
Let's see what develops.
All based on keeping a nation of patriots in fear.
The President today delivered a speech campaigning for the tax cuts,
said in part; "In order to improve the economy, we have to increase
demand. To increase demand, we have to let workers keep more of what
they earn." Well a simple message for the masses, and true initially.
But I hope your studies of George, and Harrison, are coming along so
that you are able to see that the first claim upon wealth is the rent.
So in this instance higher real wages will eventually feed thru to
higher affordability for houses, increased bank credit for such lending,
drives land prices higher. (A little simplistic, but you can be 101%
certain the tax cuts will raise land price to bubble status this
decade.) And the cycle continues. Bank shares will be a great short at
the peak of the next cycle. Increasing your knowledge now, helps one
take advantage of things later. The past land price cycle WILL repeat.
To trading matters:
As we count degrees off the gold high, liked I asked you, here's what
happened at 60 deg. See attached.
gold off high.gif
Watch the Gann dates off previous email. Markets turn on these dates,
for whatever reason I have no idea, but it works.
There have been some great share runs this month, breaks of
accumulation. EMS, PMP, BLB, PSA. (VNA maybe - tell me someone didn't
know about that one.) Watch EMS for that inevitable retracement. Catch
the new highs via equitiesinfo.com.au
Employment agencies, building companies, property developers and some
related banking shares figure high in such companies going into new
highs; signs of the economy developing speed once more. The market here
is indicating improved earnings for these sectors next two to three years.
A note for the commodity sugar, the stock MSF breaking into new highs -
first time in years - telling us something.
Click here to see the file...