A few thoughts from phil - emailed to subscribers
Sun, 01 Oct 2006

A coup in Thailand. Dates and prior knowledge always interest me in these things. Just out of interest:

Thaksin Shinawatra took office 5 years ago, in 2001. There have been 18 coups since the first one, 72 years back. The most recent, prior to this weeks, was in 1991, (February) 15 years ago. The king of Thailand has been ruling for 60 years this year. (In an unofficial capacity, the monarchy was allegedly abolished in 1932.) Probably the worst coup - most emotional - was in 1976, that's 30 years ago, when plenty of students were gunned down at Thammasat University.

Who knows ? Perhaps this is all coincidental. Worse, perhaps I am only finding exactly what I am looking for. In my defense however, these were the ONLY dates mentioned in three articles I referenced about the coup. (IHT, WSJ) More important though, from a practical point of view, was it known about in advance by the market players ? Well, people always vote with either their feet, or their money, depending on which you have more of. Interesting to note therefor, the Associated Press (AP) reported that Thaksin left on September 9th to visit European and Asian leaders with 58 large suitcases and trunks in his government supplied airplane. AP also reported a second aircraft was flown by Thai Airways from Bangkok to meet up with the Prime Minister a few days after this, with yet more suitcases on board, 56 of them.

The reason for the coup was a growing indignation that Thakrin's sale of his telecommunications company (a government granted license we might note) to the Singapore government could not really have been done so effectively without his government position. No tax was payable on the deal either, increasing the outrage felt by locals. ($1.5 billion profit from memory, but don't quote me on that figure.) His profit, the unwillingness or inability of government to collect the rent, is why the Thai's have to pay tax we might note, but that is another story.

Anyway, the IHT, September 25 issue, page 7, speculated that 58 normal sized suitcases could have carried $116 million, quoting an expert on bank notes, and that $1 million in $100 bills weighs roughly 10 kilos. "Heavy but manageable" said the expert.

Assuming it was in US dollars of course. Taken out in Baht, the amount would have been much less.

Potential for corruption built on land (in this instance air waves) enclosure. The former Prime Minister's itinery around Europe would be interesting to see. A swiss bank along the way ?

The Thai market has largely tracked sideways for some time now. When markets go sideways it usually means they are waiting for signs to determine which way to go. Perhaps we have just had that ? Doesn't tell us much about the coup having been widely expected however. Can say though that the coup has not upset the market at all. thai market.gif

Those in myp might have need of a swiss bank as well. (I don't ever recall seeing price going lower prior to takeover bids.) myp day before.png This is why we buy new highs.

Talking about leaks...
Said a leaked 30 page intelligence report about Iraq this month: "the centrality of the US invasion of Iraq, and the insurgency that has followed, (is) the leading inspiration for new Islamic extremist networks and cells that are united by little more than an anti-western agenda... The situation has worsened the US position."

Said the President: "Together with our coalition partners, we've removed terrorist sanctuaries, disrupted their finances, killed and captured key operatives, broken up terrorist cells...and stopped new attacks before they're carried out. We're on the offensive against the terrorists on every front."

Said the Vice-President (to an audience of car makers): "the terrorists plan to seize control of a country in the middle east, use it as a base from which to overthrow governments and eventually set up a totalitarian empire stretching from Spain to Indonesia." (Yes its true, he said it.) Said Cheney further: "the terrorists cannot hope to beat us in a stand up fight, they are convinced they can break the will of the American people."

The duo's messages from their Ministry of Truth must finally be getting through. A very recent Harris Poll reported (quoted by Paul Krugman, New York Times) that 50% of Americans now believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction when the US 'invaded', this is up from 36% a year ago. 64% still believe that Saddam had 'strong' links with Bin Laden, despite all factual reports having suggested the contrary.

This is why many people have real trouble trading - they will continue to 'believe', to the contrary of what a chart is clearly showing them, or believe their opinion on a stock is correct, despite evidence saying otherwise. Or of course, they could be just plain dumb.

The bird flu case: keeping track of the counts are we, as I suggested way back ? Death of a man in Asia, possible bird flu case in Sydney, occurring 180 days off the 2006 high for biota (bta). This year's high was itself a mid point of last years high and low retracement move. Gann's good.

You can trade that information, by doing your counts on the chart. In fact 180 is such a reliable number you can assume something will happen on that count. The way you trade it depends upon the trend of the chart, and what the price numbers throw up. Come to the Gann class if you don't understand it. The low this year was on the 90 count at a repeat range, the high for June 1st on the 60 count, an exact mid point. Chart not attached here. Look for an overbalance now to the upside, then a move back to the mid point which should form a higher bottom on the daily to stay in the trade.

You may have noticed the resurgence of violence in Afghanistan this month and last, a noticeable surge putting western forces under considerably more pressure. We are 60 months from the Taliban fall of October 2001. Increased emotion at 60 months can be forecast with absolute certainty. Time works this way. 90 months from these events, (as well as Sept 11 2001) come out at March and April 2009. If you do a circular gann chart of US markets over the past 7 years, you will find September and March are the 2 key months. Seasonal months Gann would have noted.

Always two sides to every story of course:
Heard on the street: "the imperialists plan to seize control of a country in the middle east, use it as a base from which to overthrow governments (and control the oil) and eventually set up puppet regimes stretching from California and going westwards to New York."

MYP - day before
Thai Market

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