Nasdaq 8/5/00

Nasdaq 8/5/00

A couple of interesting thing to note. And although these comments are now in hindsight, past market action should always be studied carefully, because history repeats, in all stocks, everywhere. This applies to Indices also. (Image is a screen shot of site)

Note first the trend. Since October 1998 the NASDAQ index was in up trend; never at any stage was there a lower low.

So in the last week of March, when for the first time the index broke below the prior low, this is important. At this time it confirmed the process of "distribution" (a Gann term for illustrating how more and more people come into the market, as good news keeps on coming out, creating often a major top) at high prices for the 4 to 5 week prior. This signalled lower prices to follow. Panic at this time, not 2 weeks later. (April 17th in Australia)

On price, NASDAQ found support at the mid point of the 2 year extreme range, October 1998 - March 2000. As for time; the panic low April 14 2000, previous major low October 18 1999, low before that week ended October 5 1998, all great Gann dates. The important question, where to from here?

Note from April 14 low NASDAQ bounced back by half of the first run down. This low at 3227 does not have support at a previous top. The low at 3227 is a key figure, having occurred on a significant time frame (180 days October 18 1998). If this breaks, NASDAQ will spend 18 months in a bear market. Sideways for a while seems likely, with no particular pattern whilst the market sorts itself out. Watch for a low 60 days from March 10, being May 10 / 11. This low will need to be above 3227 for any hope of a NASDAQ recovery this year. A move lower to previous tops at 2700 seems probable however.

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