Goodman Fielder GMF 10/2/00


Goodman Fielder GMF 10/2/00

An effective illustration of why I don't buy stocks trending down, nor try to pick lows. A stock is never too low, to go lower. It is possible to view here, the price at which support was withdrawn for GMF - underlined on the chart. Note the increased volume on each break of the lows. Very bearish.

Importantly, in January, it was announced GMF would be taken out of the top 50 index. One needs to follow changes to the indices. Fund managers matching this index will be forced to dump the stock. The affect is obvious. In addition, previous tops at 1.40 (1995) have failed to hold. This adds to the overall bearish scenario.

The on balance volume clearly reveals heavier volume on down days. Success depends on finding shares trending up, not down, and in not trying to pick lows.

my opinion; In these days of index investing by fund managers, the process can become self fulfilling. The lower GMF goes, the less its market cap, the less these fund managers need to hold, the more they sell. This accentuates the trend.

From our point of view it becomes imperative to identify the trend.

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