Sector Analysis 4/10/00

I must say that after reviewing the market and the industry sectors, there does seem to be a distinct lack of trading opportunities at present. However on closer inspection, I have been able to identify some opportunities which are worth investigating yourselves. Attached are the sector charts and comments are below

First the energy index. With world oil prices reaching record levels it is any wonder this sector is looking like a good one to invest in. What I have found quite surprising however is the general lack of up-trending oil stocks. Only two come to mind being, Woodside and Santos. A lot of this must come down to the Australian oil stocks being hampered by a bad hedge book position. This is where the company has been asked (forced) by the banks to forward sell oil at prices of a year or two ago. The banks required this in order to allow further borrowing by the company. Unfortunately as most of this occurred several years ago, these companies are now selling at prices well below current world oil prices. In most instances this has been at around US$20 a barrel when the current prices currently range between US$30-35. I believe there is further upside in energy stocks and feel the energy index chart supports this view. Watch for an imediate retracement to the midpoint followed by a bigger move up above the 1636 high of September.

The Investment & Finance index looks interesting. Still in an uptrend dispite the 3035 low in May this year. For absolute certainty, you should wait for a breaking of the 3795 high in March this year but I think it is looking strong. Watch for a repeat range of:-
2676 to 3795 = 1119 points
target = 3035 + 1119 = 4154 points

Transport index once again showing an up-trend is still intact. Again look for a repeat range:-
5163 to 7167 = 2004 points
target = 6133 + 2004 = 8137 points

I think the Insurance index is still looking good. Notice it has now reacted down off the 0.618 fibonacci level at approx 6300 points. Look for a retracement back to 6300 level before the next move up.


Energy
Investment & Finance
Transport
Insurance

Print This Page

Home ----- Contact Us