UGL - Weekly Chart - 10 May 2001

UGL - Weekly Chart - 10 May 2001

Note the break of lows late in 1999. If one had bought at any time before this, that was the place to exercise a stop loss. Stop losses are required to ensure your portfolio does not get filled with shares going south, to preserve your capital so another better purchase can be found, and to reduce stress (in the longer term) as you are not left holding underperforming shares. Of course this is easy in hindsight, but that is afterall how one learns. UGL continued down into year 2000; no need to even consider looking at the coy again till that trend line broke. The break of those lows is forecasting the future of course, and tells you to expect bad news on the earnings front for this company; the break of the lows is building in that news, in advance. (Dow theory).

It's at the point of the moving average crossover, 10 and 34 week mov. aves in this instance, that the stock warrants closer inspection. Trend lines could then be drawn linking lows and whilst price stays above moving aves buying is possible. After that, you have to let time do its thing, be patient, and exercise the stop loss if the chart proves non co-operative. (stop loss $1.05 or there abouts. What I also like here is that there is no overhead resistance to the continued up move at present till the stock hits $2.25 (bottoms become tops - Gann) and the stock will pause here once it reaches this price, a top, for subsequent retracement of the move up currently underway.

further,
engineering is a cyclical business. Longer term, 5 year cycles are often found, two per decade cycle. A move across every top I consider adding to my original position, especially where a stock shows evidence of prior trending, eg 1996 - 98.

From here, Gann followers would be looking for repeat runs, similar time frames etc. March, June and October are key months for this company.

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