For those subscribers who did courses over the last few years with me, you will know how I closely followed Petroz and traded the stock from time to time also. You will remember how this stock echoed the politics of the East Timor situation, ie two countries, Aust and Indonesia, interested in (squabbling over) Timor sea oil and gas royalties. Updating the saga; first the story from the age, my comments follow.

Start quote
The Age April 11 2001 page 7.
By Barry Fitzgerald
The stand-off between East Timor and Australia on revenue rights to Timor Sea oil and gas fields has "quite extreme" consequences for the region's flagship project, the $10 billion Phillips Petroleum-managed Bayu-Undan development. The Oklahoma-based Phillips yesterday warned that the opportunity to develop Bayu-Undan's huge gas reserves could be lost if a stable legal and fiscal framework for the project was not in place well before mid-year. Serious doubts were cast over the project's gas development schedule on Monday when Ambassador Peter Galbraith, East Timor's cabinet member for political affairs, dropped the bombshell that all aspects of the "illegal" Timor Gap treaty were up for renegotiation.

The treaty was put in place after Indonesia's invasion of East Timor in 1975, and set out the legal and fiscal regime covering what is forecast to be a $20 billion investment boom in Timor Sea oil and gas riches over the next 20 years, generating annual government revenue of more than $500 million. Australia has offered to move from a 50:50 revenue split to an 85:15 per cent split in favour of East Timor in an effort to secure a new deal. But negotiations on the new deal have stalled, even though Ambassador Galbraith has set a July 15 deadline for their conclusion so as to coincide with East Timor's transition by the end of the year to nation status. But that deadline is not good enough for Phillips. Its executive in charge of Bayu-Undan, Jim Godlove, said yesterday that "July 15 is a very important date for the East Timorese and we respect that". "But we need some decisions in advance of that date", Mr Godlove said after attending the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration conference yesterday. He said Phillips and its customer base for gas were disappointed by the East Timor attitude.

After sitting in on Ambassador Galbraith's presentation to the APPEA conference on Monday, Mr Godlove was seen hurrying from the auditorium. Yesterday the urgency was related to his need to report back on the ambassador's comments to Phillips in the US. "I would reserve comment on their reaction", Mr Godlove said, indicating a growing frustration within the oil major with both the East Timorese and Australian governments. "We need both fiscal and legal stability. We have to know what our rights are under the Timor Gap Treaty. Whose tax regime we are going to be subject to is going to be very important to us. Those at a minimum are the outcomes we need. How the governments share the revenue is entirely for them to sort out. It is of no great consequence to us? "When you are talking about the investments that we are going to make, and our customers are going to make, you have to know what legal, fiscal and administrative regime is going in. "Right now the risk and uncertainty is too great, and we need some clarity very soon." APPEA executive director Barry Jones said Canberra had been made well aware of industry concerns about the Timor Sea standoff."
End quote.

My comments;
One can learn a lot about politics through the study of money, or more particularly , the study of government licences and privileges to whom ever they are awarded. (As taught in the EIS business cycles classes.) Indonesia wanted the oil, so did we. Eventually we ended up 'protecting' the Timorese rights after having first upheld Indonesia's. If East Timor had no oil our 'peacekeepers' wouldn't be there. As I clearly said in many classes last year, the multinational oil companies will largely determine the property rights, with a rent levy for govt set as low as possible. Who will enforce this ? The US of course, as they are desperate to secure energy from anywhere except the middle east. (The President and vice president are both oil men) Which is why our energy companies are being snapped up at bargain basement prices by US companies, as PTZ was. It astounds me that we the people allow our government to do this. It continues to make Australia a poorer nation than it otherwise might have been. The profits now go off shore. Are any of the Pollies smart enough to see what's happening ? Do we have a media capable of even analyzing what might be going on ? Does any one care ?

A study of companies on various stock markets teaches much about current events. The PTZ chart followed the ups and downs of East Timor politics, as you can see.